Thean, Glad to see you are staying. I hadn't read any posts since Fri afternoon. I was getting ready to balst Bry myself for such an idiotic posting on Fri, but it looks like you beat me to it. Bry is the typical young kid that thinks he's discovered nirvana in the stockmarket and that he's smarter than everyone else. Gee, tell us something we don't know -"buy when everyone else is bearish, and sell when others are bullish." As for this thread and yourself being a contrarian indicator? I don't see it. If that's so, I guess we should be down 50% by now because I've been bullish the whole time! Still am. Looking for a nice rebound on Mon from present lows. There you go Bry, that was just for you. You better start selling next week, or better yet go short. This thread is way too bullish right now for you to be buying. Come on, show us how smart you are.
Stay strong and Good Luck!
-Lucretius
SINGAPORE BUSINESS TIMES
1997/12/11
Oil firms to expand hiring, spending: survey
Oil companies will spend more to find oil and natural gas in 1998 and expect to hire more workers, a closely watched survey indicates.
Companies are optimistic about the energy industry's future because they believe oil and natural gas demand will continue to grow and prices will remain constant through 1998, then rise slowly, according to Arthur Andersen's 10th annual US oil and gas industry outlook survey.
"Managements believe current opportunities are better than at any time during the past 15 years," said Victor Burk, Arthur Andersen managing director of energy industry services. The industry still can't find enough skilled workers and drilling rigs to meet booming demand.
The survey is based on responses from executives with 94 companies, including Amoco, Chevron, DuPont's Conoco, Mobil, Texaco, Italy's Agip and Australia's Broken Hill. More than 72 per cent said they will increase domestic spending to find and develop oil and gas fields in 1998, up from 70 per cent last year.
Some 45 per cent said they would increase exploration spending outside of the US, up from 32 per cent a year ago.
Practically all (90 per cent) expect employment by the industry to increase, up from just 47 per cent a year ago. And 78 per cent plan to boost hiring at their own companies, up from 49 per cent in 1996.
Close to 60 per cent said they are experiencing a shortage of skilled personnel.
The shortage was listed among the top five greatest concerns facing the industry, and has hit almost every sector. Companies have had to import welders from the UK and elsewhere, Mr Burk said, and salaries are rising.
"That will very quickly attract high school graduates and others into geophysical, geological and engineering classes in college", which would give the industry a good pool of white collar workers, but not for four to five years, he said. -- Bloomberg
HOUSTON CHRONICLE
12/9/1997
Oil industry running low on rigs, people
Exploration and production companies plan to spend more money searching for oil and gas in 1998 but they expect to face shortages of people, prospects and equipment, according a survey released Tuesday.
A shortage of offshore drilling rigs and a shortage of skilled workers showed up in the answers to the annual survey of energy company executives at the Arthur Andersen energy symposium here.
However the No. 1 concern in this year's survey was lack of attractive drilling prospects. That bumped last year's top worry of environmental requirements and costs, which slipped to sixth on the list.
Uncertainty about prices for oil and gas ranked second and third. The lack of prospects wasn't an issue in 1992 when capital budgets bottomed out, said Victor Burk, Arthur Andersen's managing director of energy industry services.
But after five years of budget increases, finding attractive places to drill was listed as the No. 1 factor in capital spending decisions.
Eighty-two percent of the 94 companies responding to the survey believe there will be a shortage of U.S. offshore drilling rigs in 1998 -- up from 65 percent of the responses on last year's responses.
Another 59 percent said they are experiencing a shortage of skilled workers. The question about workers wasn't on last year's survey, although there already were indications of problems then, said an Arthur Andersen spokesman.
Despite the problems, the companies are more certain of growth next year than they were last year.
Ninety percent of the companies expect employment in the exploration and production segment to increase next year, compared to only 47 percent who expected an increase in the 1996 survey.
There is a difference of opinion between majors, 75 percent of which expect more hiring next year, and large independents, 100 percent of which expect industry-wide employment gains.
Seventy-two percent of all companies said they plan to increase next year's exploration budgets, compared to 70 percent a year earlier.
These decisions are being made by companies "because their managements believe current opportunities are better than at any time during the past 15 years," said Burk.
Companies are utilizing alliances, partnerships, mergers and acquisitions as as tools to gain access to additional prospects, people and rigs, said Burk.
Asked which areas of the world were most attractive for exploration and development, the companies ranked the United States first, followed by Venezuela, Argentina and Canada.
These emerging shortages will temper a surge in the business. That means that rather than a repeat of the boom and bust of the past, oil executives are predicting demand for oil and gas will grow modestly, in line with rising production, allowing current prices to hold through 1998.
Companies responding to the latest survey included majors such as Amoco, Conoco, Marathon Oil and Chevron USA, large independents such as Enron Oil & Gas, Union Pacific Resources and Vastar Resources, plus smaller independents such as Forest Oil and Seagull Energy. |
