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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (11554)	12/14/1997 12:44:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

HI Bill; I'm Sure TA can be helpfull long term, don't let my way of expressing things lead you to think I discount it's value, just wanted to say it's more accurate short term than long term, as over the long term the FA can change which will effect any long trem TA, a mix of both seems prudent..and I wanted to point out that with Big movers and shakers able to play both ends of the pond TA based on just our market can "at times" toss you a real curve ball. Maybe not so much on stocks that just trade locally..but on the big caps..and the over all market you have to include the rest of the world, in order to eliminate getting suckered into swinging at a curve ball..not that there may be all that many..and well I'm a long way from figuring out the mess I'v discovered.. Guess I'm tossing it out looking for some help, without feed back I may jump to conclusions to soon. There is to much going on for me to sort through it all alone, can't even yet figure out the parts I have found, and if I do get an idea on them, but over look another aspect then how good is that idea..I got to do a lot of back testing..and even that presents a problem..it means getting even more info that that link to London gives..or waiting to collect it over several months..were can I get back data on money exchange rates ? and charts on the stocks sold on the London exchange, to compare with the local charts, that link don't have them..guess I might have to buy some FEE based service abroad..and Then I ask my self is it worth it for a little guy like me to go to such troble and expence on my own, or should I just stick with some savy Mutuall Fund..and walk in and out of it based in the general pulse of things, trying to catch the upside and limit the down side, man I'm charting a lot of Mutual funds too. All in all beating the S&P is tough..but if one were to play the Deposit Recpt ( SPY ) and do it carefully..one could beat the S&P..and not have to study on all the damm stocks, another thing with SPY is it seems as liguid enough to get out in a flash at market on the open before it drops as fast as the S&P might drop. IN that way leaving some money on the table is not so risky providing I don't have to go to sea..twice now I'v shiped out with money on the table and came back to a market that dumped that's gotten old, and has cost me more than I made while at sea..I'm still hurting from that OCT 27th thingy..was out in the Gulf and didn't get to exit..except till last Friday, that bubble at least let me limit some of my loss, now I'm stuck trying to pick a bottom to try and make up for the rest, or to take some chances on shorting a few that may move on down, but having to play damage controal is not fun. I'm still holding one big loser, and hope it's found it's bottom. It's too much to write off on taxes..my others back in April already gave me my limit, I'm not going back to sea with money on the table any more..man that was a mistake..my play on oil offset some of it..but I was over exposed in other areas to recoup some of the Tech stocks I had back in April just died and never followed the sector back up. At least this last time I had no Tech..just a vidio company MOOV..and being it's not tied to or dependent on ASIA or such it may rebound..but it could take a while..if thinmgs get tough over here maybe more people will stay home and watch vidios :-) MOOV is supposed to get bought out by VUPDA, at which time if it hasn't come back I wind up taking the VUPDA stock.. in as much as they are retail and that's the final thing to generally dump I might be OK hanging on, heck MOOV could dump or sell off her stores and go liquid for more than I have in her, at least I got in under half her book value, time will tell, but meanwhile I got a lot of money tied up that I can't play with...I wonder how many others are in my shoes.. I'v calculated her volume since her fall from grace..and I'm still in cheaper than 2/3rds of the share holders..but if that figure goes to 1/2 then I'll dump out..but I need to run the same deal on VUPDA..they may not join up..but if they do and my fortunes become tied to VUPDA I want to be in below the majority of thoes share holders too..that's another thing when I go long I try to do it well below the majority of the of the share holders, even that has not protected me from some big hits. I'v inched up some by day trading but that's a slow process with my limited funds..I'v got some bonds locked in at good interest rates that I'm not going to give up in this down market..eventully they will offset my set backs, if infaltion don't set in, yet something else tells me that the high value of the dollar may not hold and if it loses value then my bonds do also. Jim