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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ETF1 who wrote (8198)	7/5/2014 9:24:45 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

MGJ, what is your plan here? What are the details of your plan? I am at critical mass and have been for the past 25 years. I work because I want to not because I have to. Since the age of 18 till June 2013 I was at 97% equities. Since ~October 2013 or so have been at around 80% equities, 20% cash, bonds. My plan is to go 20% equities, 80% cash, bonds by year end thinking the fourth quarter will be seasonally strong exiting on strength Let's say "not too much happens btw now and then", and you successfully exit the stock market by the end of the year, and go to cash with the money formerly in the market. Then what? I sit and wait for a significant pullback due to either QE coming to an end, rising rates, or both. Sure, if we get a huge bear market like the last two, taking the market down 45% to 55% as the last two did, you will go back into the market at attractive levels. Yes. But what if that doesn't happen? Will you stay 100% cash and bonds for life? Markets move in cycles. The Fed has propped up asset prices beyond their true value. I expect a decline at some point. Timing the market is very tricky and difficult, as you've alluded to in describing Bob Brinker's failed market timing since late 2007 My moves here are more to preserve my critical mass. No one I know times markets correctly...or gets it right consistently. BB is playing both sides of the fence: One side: Market is at all time highs, investor complacency is very high...don't put new money in the market...or wait for market weakness. The other side: He is still fully invested. MGJ