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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (31162)	12/14/1997 1:50:00 PM
From: j g cordes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Tom and Don, Don't want you to feel all alone in your nadir of sentiment contrarian toast. Five days in a row of selling is pushing the odds envelope but only at 31:1. If Monday is down then we go to a more tradeable 63:1. The short term occilators are looking attractive (sounds like a strip joint), while the long term are neutral to declining through supports. If I may, let me put in some fundamental strategic thinking on where we are in the woods and how to trade it this week. There are: A. end of year tax strategies are in play, dumping and pumping B. cash inflows continue strong into funds C. bonds are supportive of not having disaster days (-300) D. we're short term oversold .... 1. based on news .... 2. based on declining profit expectations E. there are few up momentum sectors F. there are many technical oversold sectors including Don's indexs Conclusion: Seems to me its a wonderful environment for accelerated volatility with a growing bias (but not fundamental support for) the upside. This is a day trading market, especially as its the end of year expiration cycle, the last week with plenty of energy building... Psychological preparation is important, don't pine over lost intraday opportunities... in other words, if you insist on trading, while calling in your long or short position you may as well give a selling price at the same time, look for a clean percentage gain, something like 10-20% (unless you're watching realtime and can pull the trigger quickly) on OEX trades when tick or trin indicates an extreme. Fast market fill strategies are best IMO. Jim

To: donald sew who wrote (31162)	12/14/1997 5:37:00 PM
From: Riskmgmt	Respond to of 58727

Tom, shoot, I feel lonely now, but am glad to hear that you have at least an inkling for a forthcoming reversal soon. If I go down with this prediction I prefer not to be by myself.. (ROFL). Hi! Don. Been enjoying reading the posts of this and the ideas thread, including yours which I always fine worthwhile. Not felt like posting much but so you don't feel lonely, here goes. I tend to agree with you and TT. My reasons are; 1. Interest rates. The long bond under 6%, mortgage rates the lowest in 30 years, zero inflation. Doesn't sound like fertile ground for a Bear market. 2. Lots of cash around looking for a home. Pension funds, IRA's, 401K money. Where is it going in CD's @ 5%? Bonds? Maybe, for a short while but soon fear of losing capital will be replaced by fear of missing the bounce up. Real Estate? I doubt it, even with mortgage rates low, it isn't the investment it was when inflation was double digit and we had the great tax incentives. 3. The economy-OK not to overlook Asia but the USA economy is the strongest it has been in many years and certainly the best since this bull market began. We have had the problems with East Germany being reunited with West Germany and the European "Union" cloud not stopping the bull why should Korea? 4. The peace factor. No more communist threat. I don't count China because it is more freemarket than the West, in many ways and Cuba's a joke. Look at the savings to the tax payers with each base closing and each company that transforms from making weapons to consumer products. 5. Most important OJ has turned from devout Bull to DEVOUT BEAR! A clear sign the bottom is close at hand:):):) FWIW my opinion is late December/January rally especially in the techs, but the quality will count. Selling calls may loose one some upside. regards, Ray p.s. Not all techs are beaten up Citrix is still up above $70!