Organic Issues Top Ten Internet Predictions for 1998
SAN FRANCISCO, Dec. 15 /PRNewswire/ -- Organic, Inc., a San Francisco Interactive marketing and communications company, today revealed its Internet predictions for the coming year. The predictions, compiled by Organic's Strategic Planning Division, provide their Fortune 1000 clients like NIKE, Harley-Davidson and McDonalds with industry insight on how Internet technologies, trends and innovations will affect their businesses.
Organic's Top 10 Internet Predictions for 1998
1) The Internet will force newspapers to play a different role in society.
Just as the microwave changed our use of the oven, the Internet will change the role of traditional print media in our lives.
Stock quotes, sports scores, classified ads, election results and the like are delivered more efficiently online through AOL, Yahoo!, CNET, and other super-sites. This leaves daily newspapers to develop new ways to sustain and increase readership. In response, Wang says dailies will forgo some of their staunch objectivity, and actually revert back to their former position of ''opinion leaders.'' ''Smart publications will rely less on breaking news, and more on their own point-of-view reporting and analysis to attract and keep customers,'' said Wang. Big city daily papers will weather this storm, and strengthen their brand through the recruitment of interesting and creative editorial talent and in depth feature reporting.
Will the 'Net replace the newspaper? ''Absolutely not. ''Most consumers are not going to be sitting down with their morning coffee and a laptop. In fact, people are disinclined to read down into more than two Internet pages,'' Wang said.
2) The line between online publishing and online advertising will blur with the growth of online commerce.
In 1997, the industry saw the first wave of commerce-driven sites striking deals with online publishers and gateways. Amazon.com paid upwards of $50 million to AOL, Excite and Yahoo! in exchange for prime advertising real estate. This was only the tip of the iceberg.
Because sites such as Yahoo! and Excite publish content to build communities of consumers, they may become less concerned about the proverbial separation of editorial and advertising. As a result, these online publishers may find their brand getting stretch marks if they refuse to clearly distinguish promotional content from editorial content.
Interestingly, traditional media with online sites such as the Wall Street Journal, BusinessWeek and the San Jose Mercury News, will be faced with the struggle of maintaining their editorial integrity while aggressively pursuing necessary ad revenue. ''The New York Times' Book Review Online links book titles to the Barnes and Noble page and is paid a bounty for each book sale originating from the NYT site,'' noted Tom Wang. ''Would a stake in the bottom line inspire a favorable review? Where is the line drawn?''
3) The Web will create millions of 15-minute stars.
While the Web has incubated many online communities, 1998 will see the growth of ''the individual'' on the Internet. Online vanity publishing will move from the high tech fringe crowd, a la Joshua Allen and Justin Hall, to mainstream Americans, as people become impassioned to express their individuality online.
GeoCities and Mining Company have already created places where individuals create their own personal web sites, and the numbers are staggering.
The upside? The web will further deliver on its promise to draw communities of *like minds* together from around the world in the way that Tripod has succeeded in doing.
The down side? ''The same folks airing their dirty laundry on Jerry Springer and Sally Jesse Raphael will discover the Net as a platform to self-express,'' said Wang.
4) ''The Medium will be the Message'' for technology companies.
As exemplified by I.B.M.'s recent multi million ''ebusiness'' marketing campaign, technology companies will develop more proof-of-concept Web sites. In 1998, technology companies will use their sites not as ''brochureware'' but as ''showcases'' of their technology. Already, Macromedia makes extensive use of its Shockwave and Flash technologies on the company's site. Similarly, Sun Microsystems' web site uses Java applets as a forum to show its visitors what Sun's microsystems can actually do.
''Technology companies' sites will serve as both a free sample and a user manual to explain a product's features and benefits to businesses and consumers,'' said Wang. ''With real live demos, minus the sales pressure, people will use the Internet to explore the newest technology and discover how it might be implemented in business,'' he added. ''All of the important buying considerations can be reviewed via the Internet -- from contacting current users of the product to the actual purchase.''
5) Advertising Networks will support the existence of smaller Web sites.
Internet content networks (like ZD Net) and advertising networks who bundle suites of ad space from various smaller sites will continue to foster one another's growth in 1998. This will open the door of opportunity for these smaller companies' sites. Small scale Internet publishers will have the opportunity to become part of these large, growing networks, as the networks seek to strengthen their inventory of advertising impressions. This will allow small publishers, otherwise unable to survive, to sustain themselves via advertising.
Will smaller publishers die out with the onset of Microsoft-backed publishing ventures online? ''Niche publishers like Salon Magazine and The Onion are able to sustain themselves through advertising as part of these larger networks,'' said Wang. ''However, small and mid size publishers will be greatly threatened if they do not join a network. The combined ad inventory which networks like DoubleClick and Petry offer media buyers is the only way small sites can compete for ad revenue when up against highly trafficked sites like Microsoft Sidewalk and Yahoo!''
6) Reports of ''the death of the online banner ad'' have been greatly exaggerated.
The standard banner ad has been grossly overcritisized since its inception, but with banner spending reaching at least $600 million in 1997, banners have proven to be remarkably adaptable to diverse business objectives on the Internet and will continue to be widely used on the Web.
Wang contends, ''Instead of criticizing the banner ad for its limitations, companies will thrive by thinking about how to better utilize the potential of the banner ad.'' The Web banner will be commercially exploited as a multi-faceted format which can be adapted to serve branding, direct response or, more importantly, *both*.
Banner impressions will continue to be used to elevate brand awareness; Additionally, direct response tactics will emerge within the banner, and further ways of measuring ad effectiveness.''
Wang explained, ''If the banner provides a branding message such as 'Drive BMW' as well as a pull down transaction menu like 'Click to Win a Car,' the advertisement is then doing double duty for the business.''
7) Information database providers will thrive as businesses ante up for mission critical information.
Publishers who rely on the individual subscription model will realize a dramatic decline in revenue and will eventually lose out. In 1998, increasing profits will go to those companies who can provide businesses with mission critical information ''vis-a-vis'' a proprietary database.
Market research companies such as Relevant Knowledge, and information retrieval services such as Lexis-Nexis, will be able to demand even heftier prices as businesses stand in line to pay dearly to access these valuable extranets.
8) Internet commerce will transform from a technical roadblock to a marketing dilemma; Consumers beware: patience required!
Companies will no longer be able to blame transaction security for their slow move to capitalize on the Internet's commerce opportunity. As more and more companies attempt to climb on board the Internet commerce train, consumers will be subjected to a widening array of poorly managed sites vying for thier business. Consumers will become increasingly less tolerant of these sites. ''Further,'' Wang explained, ''companies will need to focus on service, usability and promotion as the key factors driving the effectiveness of their Internet efforts.'' Wang added, ''Savvy consumers will demand from their Internet experience the same level of attention to customer service and product offering that they demands from their brick ad mortar experience.'' And as consumers will have more online choices, companies will be forced to deliver a satisfying experience or sit back and watch as consumers transfer to another destination.
9) Email will be the application that drives wireless Internet access.
Consumers have long been told of a time when they will be able to inexpensively access a wireless internet, and experience true freedom. In 1997, Metricom modems and the Palmpilot introduced this daily freedom to those with a less constrained pocketbook. ''In 1998,'' said Wang, ''the average consumer will be able to start the day off by checking voice mail, email, and the latest news on the Internet all from an affordable hand-held communication access tool while waiting for breakfast at the corner cafe.''
10) Other media will begin to adopt current Internet media characteristics.
The attractive features of Internet navigation, such as the Web browser bookmark, will extend into other media in 1998. ''If I can choose my favorite places online and tailor news in My Yahoo! to my interests, why should the cable company force feed me TV station packages of channels I don't want to pay for?'' asked Wang.
In 1998, consumers will demand more flexibility and personalization from TV and other media. Magazine publishers have already begun to respond to this demand, with Time-Warner already offering golf-focused customized versions of Sports Illustrated. Consumers will demand personalized products and those companies that comply will succeed. |
