Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : Oxford Health Plan (OXHP) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Burry who wrote (549)	12/14/1997 6:14:00 PM
From: Terrapin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2068

Michael, Thanks for the response. Indeed, future charges weigh heavily on my analysis. I am currently trying to track down some ballpark figures for the fines from the AG and insurance regulators. I am also wondering if all these charges have to come at once or if they can be spaced out over a couple quarters (most likely the fines can be paid in installments but I am just guessing). If the this is the case then OXHP may be given the time to recover from the current situation. I don't mean to give the impression that I am grasping at straws, I realize the situation is dire. But this is my smallest and, by design, my most speculative holding. I hope that I will still be welcome as a budding value investor on your thread if I decide to average down! <ggg> Happy Holidays, John

To: Michael Burry who wrote (549)	12/15/1997 6:33:00 AM
From: robt justine	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2068

Mike, you also might add to your list: #6 The negative effects to future revenues that these recent events might have. #7 The increased administrative costs of staffing up and purchasing the necessary technologies to bring the systems area up to full speed. #8 Changes to come regarding the company's estimating medical costs and cost trends as a result of information recently gotten from this experience. #9 Future pricing pressure from other providers to gain inroads to the company's business. And so on. I can go on. My point is that the investment concerns are many here. And were many when you invested. Some of the concerns that you post as danger points in the valuation process existed prior to your own investment in OXHP. Perhaps you could help us answer your own points #4 and #5 since these existed prior to the latest announcement. I must agree with Gene Abel to some degree. After the first announcement, there was cause for concern and careful analysis. Your extreme bullishness to the point of overloading your portfolio with the stock was a degree of speculation on its own. And I'm sorry but I don't believe that blaming the company for lying to you while you invested is sufficient reason for explaining away the loss. The information was out there if you wanted to investigate it. The regulators forced this upon OXHP. OXHP management believed that their original writedowns were sufficient. You knew that. I believe that more questions were answered than raised by this last announcement. To now take such a bearish stance on this stock after your extreme bullishness less than one week ago is harsh, at the least. I have actually found myself moving in the opposite direction although I have not yet put my toe into that water. Investing can be an emotional endeavor and I applaud your attempts to dispassionately arrive at the facts of this company. But if you re-read your posting to this thread over the last two weeks, I think that it may prove fruitful in self-analysis. I, of course, can only make such a bold statement since I am the undisputed king of emotional investing, to my own detriment. The exercise might be a good one in light of the news that we now have on the company. ie, How much could I have known when I invested two weeks ago? How straight was the company with the public given the circumstances of their inner battles with the regulators over the last few weeks? Again, I believe that this announcement came with OXHP's arm twisted tightly behind its back. They, of course, cannot come out and tell you this. Should some of these reserves be backed out in the future, than my theory will be proven correct. All, as usual, IMHO!