Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : QUANTUM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rational who wrote (6725)	12/14/1997 3:25:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9124

Sankar, below please see my notes from a June '97 talk by Jim Porter. He doesn't always get it right, but he's right often. Your remark >The need for large disk storage units will grow< prompted me to re-post this. GM I went to hear Jim Porter, CEO of Disk/Trend, talk at an IEEE meeting 6/10/97. Here's a summary of my notes. Title of talk was 'Outlook for Disk Drives'. Much of the information is also available at disktrend.com There is a DVD site at ima.org For the most important numbers from the latest report see... disktrend.com THERE MAY BE ERRORS IN MY NOTES - please check the Disk/Trend site. Gottfried ú Areal density increases at 60% per year through year 2000 ú Areal density increases 10x every 5 years ú Drives with highest density are 2.5" Year 1997 - 2.6 Gbits/sqin. Year 2000 - 10.8 " Year 2001 - 17.3 " ú 3.5" drives have 80% of 2.5" density ú Highest densities are in desk top drives now. ú By 2000: 5.8 Gbytes/disk for 2.5" 11 " 3.5" ú By 2000 DVD will surpass CD-ROM in volume ú Most popular drives: 1997 2-3 GB, 2000 10-20 GB ú 2 cents per MB by 2000 ú Volume increase of all drives shipped: +17.3% 1996 +20.3% 1997, +18% 1998, +16.7% 1999, +15.6% 2000 ú Cartridge drives (NOT ZIP, but JAZ included): 1.85 million in 1997, 3.4 in 1998, 6.3 in 1999, 9.7 in 2000 ú 1996 domestic $$ volume (millions): Seagate 7726, IBM 7024, Quantum 4372, Western Digital 3533, Iomega 147 (JAZ only?) ú Total US $ (millions): 26397 in 1997, 34330 in 1998, 48153 in 1999, 60122 in 2000 ú CD-ROM worldwide (millions drives): 66 in 1997, 76 in 1998, 85 in 1999 ú High capacity flex. disk drives (millions): 5.07 in 1996, 11.47 in 1997, 18.91 in 1998, 25.47 in 1999 ú 1.44 MB floppies (millions): 88 in 1996, 98 in 1997, 104 in 1998, 106 in 1999 ú Only 5% of users have high capacity floppies (niche market) ú Answer to my direct question: does not see floppy replacement by 2000, primarily because of price. OEMs pay $17 for a floppy in 1997, 15 by 2000. 2.88 MB floppy never caught on. ú Hard drive supply/demand in equilibrium now. NOT a commodity! Difficult to enter, hard to manage. Look at attrition of HD companies.