Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (3813)	12/14/1997 5:05:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

I agree with your overall point. As you said, "Everyone has to find a buying method that fits their asset allocation plans and comfort level." My current equity holding (~80%) is slightly higher than the 65% to 70% called for in my asset allocation model. This overweighting in equities is due primarily to the outstanding performance of the market over the last year. Given the fact that I am already overweighted in equities, I will only buy more stocks if Mr. Market comes to me. My semi-equip buy point of ~15% below current prices is based on my current outlook for the economy (negligible inflation and slow growth), the long-term outlook for the industry, and my previous entry points. That is, I will only get further overweighted in equities if I can do so at lower prices than my current cost basis. Best wishes, I2

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (3813)	12/14/1997 5:55:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10921

Justa and all, I'm looking for some criticism of the following. I looked at P/Book and P/Sales ranges for 1996 for a subset of the key companies - the most recent pessimistic year for Semi Equipment companies. From those ranges, I extrapolated a price range for 1998 assuming that its outlook is equally pessimistic. A word of caution: Numbers are taken from Marketplayer and are believed to be current but I have not verified with Edgar or recent Earnings press releases. Highs have not been adjusted to recognize that continued earnings will add to Book during the next year. Essentially P/Book yields a "higher" low than P/Sales as well as a higher high than P/Sales would. KLIC $15 - $45 Buy at 20, 18, 15 AMAT $12 - $25 Buy at 16, 14, 12 LRCX $18 - $54 Buy at 24, 21, 18 SVGI $15 - $32 Buy at 20, 18, 15 ASYT $ 8 - $20 Buy at 12, 10, 8. This would suggest to me that the downside risk in KLIC, LRCX and SVGI are limited at this point. I would welcome any views - contrary or in support. Thanks Ian.