To: McNabb Brothers who wrote (25110 ) 12/15/1997 12:27:00 AM From: Bill Murphy Respond to of 176387
Hank, besides the minimum wage increase mandated by Congress and our President, the UPS strike and a few others, and increasing wages in a few high tech positions, where is this wage inflation to come from? Don't use government figures on unemployment, because they are scewed. 95% of the jobs being created today are in the service industry, a la Wal-Mart and Home Depot, the backbone of the American Workforce. The manufacturing sector has been losing jobs for the last 10+ years. I agree with you that we may be in store for a bear market, but it won't be because of rising wages, that, unfortunately, is the least of the American workers' problems, as real wages have not kept pace with inflation since when? That is why it takes two wage earners to support the average family today. Technology, overseas labor and outsourcing/the elimination of unionization, will all prevent wage inflation. The problem is too much crap and not enough purchasers, that will be the downfall. The purchasing power of the average American consumer is gone. Americans are over their heads in credit, I know, I practice Bankruptcy Law part-time. Look at Sears and all of the credit card companies etc. Easy money has been the name of the game over the last 6 years, and when this all comes to an end, for whatever reason, it ain't gonna be pretty. The fed has kept short term rates high with one hand and with the other pumped the economy with money. Why? Greenspan talks tough, but keeps flooding the banking system with money. Why? Sure he is worried, his policies have pumped the market to the moon and now it seems impossible for corporate earnings to keep pace with expectations. Things have been great, good companies are much more efficient, less debt, higher ROEs. But things are too good. I am not arguing with you, I agree, just think it will happen for a different reason. Regards, Bill