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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: davesd who wrote (13267)	12/14/1997 6:13:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Dave, Are you describing anything that is different than it has always been? The equipment makers make more money more often than the chip makers. Chip makers that aren't state of the art lose their seat at the "no-limit" poker game very quickly. By staying current, at least they have the hope that they'll be able to stay in the game. With the view that you've stated, is there any reason for any chipmaker to stay in business losing money on every chip that is sold? Ian. P.S. INTC is the exception which proves the rule.

To: davesd who wrote (13267)	12/14/1997 9:22:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Dave, are you a "perma-bear"? If not, at what price do you think AMAT's valuation would fairly reflect the concerns you have voiced?

To: davesd who wrote (13267)	12/14/1997 9:40:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Re:Comapnies have to have money to invest in new technology...commodity chip makers have had poor cash flow for over 2 years....some of them are just lucky to be in business. Dave, Using this line of logic, nobody would be investing any $ in the internet since the term profit and internet, to this point at least, are mutually exclusive. AOL has really not made any $ and look at their valuation. Similarly AMZN, YHOO, LCOS ya-da-ya-da-ya-da.... In fact many of these firms do not actually yet know how they are going to make $ i.e. selling ads, selling names of customers etc... My point is that the risk of owning the equips at these prices is pretty good since to my knowledge, .35m and 200mm equipment will not have a good COO in only a year or two and the Fabs must be upgraded to remain competitive. I found this quote on another thread: "you're either compeatin' or being eaten." KIM that most of the brokerages have lowered their FY98 eps forecasts by .08-.16, approximately 4-8%, while the stock has been chopped in half. Does this make sense to anybody? Friends, this is what panic looks like up close.... Regards, Brian