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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (11473)	12/14/1997 7:04:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 18056

TC, there is thread of goldbugs where I post about once a week (Golddiger), I started posting there more than a year ago, and I have stated since my first post that gold is still in a bear market. Bear markets have a way of ending (like all good things <VBG>). I think that the signal, of the first shot above the bow of this gold bear market will be the closing of few , or maybe many, marginal gold mines and possibly the failure of those that do not have the financial strength to continue operations at thse prices. Right now, we have broken a very important low (at 285), I believe a 15 years low, so the turn of such a long term bera will not happen in one day, and if you still like to have a little of the yellow in you matress, and at prices under $300, I think you will have ample opportunities to see that the price has reversed. Right now I am pegging a resistance (wqhere rallies will fizzle ) to about 305 to 310, but I have been reducing that number from more than a year, my first peg was 369, then 340, then 325, then 315 and now about 305. The trend is your frined applies here as well, keep lowering these overhead resistance until one day the market psychology and the fundamental supply/demand situation force you to change course. I would not worry about missing the first 10 to 20% of the turn. When gold will turn it will be in a new secular trend and the first move will not be too critical (and bottom retesting as usual may give you a second chance). Zeev