Rick, >> Is this the CSGI thread or the Trivia thread <<<
Well, I guess the question should be if you rather read nothing or at least have something to do while we are awaiting news? All this trivia also shows something else. Imagine for a minute that every one of these trivia questions or brain teasers is a line of code that needs to be converted. How would you like to be the programmer that has to manually covert all that code. The vendors who provide some automated tools will be helpful, but some manual tasks will still remain. CSGI is one of the only, if not the only, company who categorically states that not one line of code is converted manually. (hmmm... do ya think Tech had some ulterior motives with all this trivia ?)
Now to ALYD.
I have never "hated" ALYD. To do so would have to involve emotions and I have stated that I don't trade stocks on "emotions". At the point I started making my negative comments about ALYD, the company had released their revenue projections for FYE 1998 and 1999. These projections fell completely short of all the HYPE that Mad Monk and others were posting on the ALYD thread. I sold my position at 26 1/4, and started discussing why I believed that the price of the stock was overvalued. I posted both technical and fundamental information. Yes, some insults were traded back and forth and some of the discussions got heated. However, the casualties were minor and the only one or two people lost their lives.
I have always stated that I am a trader and I don't get emotionally attached to stocks I trade. I successfully traded ALYD several times this month and currently own 1,500 shares.
Fundamental vs. Technical
There are many issues here that could be discusses, but to save time the answer to your question: "Is it that you dislike it fundamentally but like it technically. Is that wise?
Yes, there are some fundamental problems that exist with ALYD beginning with their lack of profitability (same with CSGI), large overhead, and manual intervention in converting code. However, they have a CEO who is aggressive in promoting the company, they have announced "big name" clients or potential clients, and are not afraid to keep their shareholders apprised of their prospects.
Basically, momentum rules the game and when the technicals or fundamentals aren't helping you make up your mind, then you have to look to see what is the momentum in the stock. ALYD's NASDAQ listing was a great example of how one could play the momentum. The technicals helped provide upward and downward "targets", but the move was based on pure momentum.
I trade most often on technicals and changes in momentum. In this market it is not wise to ignore changes in momentum and technical support and resistance levels. Most often you will see that the fundamental news will soon follow (Namely changes estimated EPS, downgrades, etc..) This market is moving way to fast for people to just rely on the fundamental of a given company. This is especially true for companies that have exposure abroad.
You advocate CSGI everywhere and then sell it and then buy it and then buy it.
The reason I sold CSGI was due to the inactivity of the stock. Like I stated, I am a trader, and the worst thing for me is when a stock just sits there and does nothing. I also had a profitable position in CSGI which was one of the main reasons I sold. Another reason was some of what TED had posted on this thread.
For all of those reasons I sold my position and took my profits. To my surprise I received many emails that day asking my the same question you have. It seems that many people "lurk" on this site who were upset that I sold and worried about the company.
That night I called my investment advisor, who owns many shares of CSGI, and discussed with him some of the things that were posted on this thread. He said that he believed that there is a distinct difference between CSGI and companies such as PTUS, SEEC, VIAS, and some of what was posted was inaccurate. During this time, I think it was the next day, Ron Bishop emailed TED with a correction to one of TED's points regarding CSGI's capabilities to find dates. I also received the email from my investment advisor that I posted on this thread. It was clear that PTUS still had manual tasks that remain to be done once the conversion process was completed. Then TED and I had a back and forth for a while in regards to what these companies were saying in their literature vs. what CSGI says. Through my own due diligence I found out, that much like PTUS, SEEC and VIAS both said that they could NOT convert code 100% automatically. They both stated that there will be code that needs to be converted manually. SEEC clearly states this on their own web site.
While all of this was happening the stock went down 10% which gave me an new entry position. I TOOK IT. Then a few days later, I took the profits I made from when I sold CSGI the first time, and bought in again.
Is CSGI good or not?
The short answer is YES Why else do you think I bought in again. This company has a very low burn rate with the potential to become profitable with one or two large contracts or several smaller ones. They are the one of the only, if not the only, company that says they can convert code 100% automatically. They have done 2 pilots for Motorola, which should lead to revenue generating projects, they are the only company I can find that has started, finished, and successfully tested a year 2000 project, They are doing a migration / y2k conversion project for LSI (a subsidiary of Merril Lynch) Their alliance partners such as AGISS, SCBI, and Millennium should prove to be a good source of additional work. The overall outlook is good, but if you ask me if there are some things that bug the hell out of me and I would like to see changed, the answer is also YES. However, I also do think that we should see a 80% to 100% move in the stock price once some contracts are announced. Don't forget we also have a pending NASDAQ listing we are waiting for. If nothing else, it would create some good momentum which should cause some short covering.
You seem like a very impatient investor to me. Has you impatience hurt or helped you?
Well, what you call "impatience" I call not being afraid to sell.
Has this helped me ? DAMN RIGHT ! this market is a traders market and those who keep holding on for the next point or two usually end up saying "ah shi* I should've sold" If I have a profit and I see a change in momentum or no activity, I usually sell and look for a new entry level.
Good luck. |
