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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (8357)12/14/1997 11:25:00 PM
From: Sam Nizam  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 9285
 
Hi Roger,

Where do you find the updates on Asia?

Are you buying more BROC now or waiting for the market to stabilize?

Sam



To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (8357)12/15/1997 3:18:00 AM
From: hasbeen101  Respond to of 9285
 
Asia looks weak

Indonesia closed down about 7%, South Korea up about 7%. The rest closed more or less square. The Indonesian market is spooked because they think President Soeharto is sick (or dying). It has been pointed out that if he loses power his next problem may be corruption charges... . That's the way it works in the "tiger economies". A funds manager I was talking to on the weekend pointed out that SE Asia is all about the "three C's":

Cronyism + Corruption != Capitalism // C/C++ Notation for not equals

When you're on the inside looking out, it may not be clear what a safe haven the US is. The Asian markets are all tanking due to chronic nepotism and misallocation of resources. The fact that guys like Dr Mahatir keeps talking about passing laws aganinst FX trading makes it even scarier. Although the Asian countries do low-value work like hardware assembly, the US is the only game in town when it comes to software and services. The US economy is well managed (even Microsoft is receiving a dose of Justice).

In summary, the worse Asia looks, the better the US looks. It has been proven once again that the free market is the worst system there is, apart from all the rest.

This doesn't mean that Yahoo is good value. But I would think carefully before betting that the US will follow the banana republics down.