To: Cogito who wrote (39898 ) 12/15/1997 2:10:00 AM From: Dale Stempson Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 58324
Re: Sony HiFD Allen, I agree, Sony's plans to introduce the drive are "a bit vague." I believe KE commented that this was a technology announcement and not a product announcement, and that Iomega won't respond until there is a product. I believe KE is right on with his reaction. In addition to comments KE made regarding costs and other problems that he suspects Sony is unaware of at this point in time, it would seem the HiFD has a long way to go before it can seriously impact Zip sales. The Zip 200MB is one potential roadblock, however "time" is perhaps the biggest problem Sony must overcome. IMO, for Sony to seriously impact Zip market share, it must do what Iomega has done and get their product in the boxes. This takes time because certain events must first take place: 1) Getting costs down to attract OEMs means production ramp up and volume manufacturing must take place first. 2) OEMs will likely want to see multiple manufacturers on board. 3) Significant product demand must be clearly evident. Demand, this is were Sony may be trapped. First of all, I can't see customers clamoring to purchase an external unit. HiFD's main selling point is 3-1/2" backward compatibility which for the most part is not needed in an external unit. Second, Outside of OEMs, this leaves those interested in replacing their existing floppy drive as a target. For most people, it would be much simpler to add an external removable. In addition to being easier to install, the drive would be portable and could be kept and used with their next new computer. Third, Most OEMs will need to see demand before they commit to offering any new drive as a standard or an option. So, if my assumptions are correct and user demand is limited because of the first and second points above, then OEMs might be reluctant to take a chance. Even with the phenomenal success of the Zip, it has taken two years to get to the point where OEM sales are beginning to take off. So, unless Sony can quickly convince OEMs to offer the HiFD with the hope of creating demand instead of responding to it, I doubt it will have enough time to otherwise increase demand to the point where it could seriously impact Iomega and the Zip. Meanwhile, the folks in Roy will continue to increase their installed base, offer product improvements and reduce costs. One last point, if we do happen to hear that an OEM or two will offer the HiFD in its boxes, I won't be overly concerned. IMO, Sony absolutely must get OEM support quickly to have any chance with their product and I wouldn't be surprised if they were to simply buy their way in. Regards - Dale