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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andreas Samson who wrote (3678)	12/15/1997 3:10:00 AM
From: Cacaito	Respond to of 23519

Andreas, I pick this number arbitrarily, but have in mind that roughly half of the international sales will be at a price about half of the US price (common for most drugs, not just Muse). Also, insurance and HMO companies will initially pay for the premium price but they will negotiate later bulk prices (remember the $6 millions Veterans aggrement previously posted they probably are trying to negotiate there). And it is kind of expected of new drugs to have a high premium to allow the company to recover development costs, but not forever. 40% is a high margin in any business, ask Compaq 15% margin one of the best in the PC industry. Intel and MSFT run around 50% to 60%. So do not think that 40% margin is a small figure. The PGE1 suppliers (Vivus does not produce PGE1, it buys PGE1 from overseas suppliers Hungary and/or Poland, and they will want a piece of the pie, very natural). They could buy the suppliers (nice move, but they will have to pay a premium, anyway one see it it is less for Vivus). Tax deductions tend to decrease, and Vivus is running out of them, maybe the building of plants will bring some (somebody mentioned $20 million costs of new plant). Competition will have an effect, psychogenic patients will respond to viagra, they will not buy Muse not even once. Mild ED will be lost to viagra and if viagra is as good as the hype moderate ED will be lost to. Only left is the complicated,multiple drug patients, and the patinets with side effects to viagra. It will have an effect in price. Will managers admit to real full projections in future prices? They even claimed as a secret if they will advertised to General practitioners. A no brainer, yes they will. Already the analyst drop next year $2.00 to about $1.50 (well not exact numbers either, I have not time to check the analyst number right now). Even a drop to 60% will not give you the 50% earnings growth if you do not increase production and that it is a problem. Management hide the problems at $42. Will they say the truth at $12?