Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: combjelly who wrote (799940)	8/6/2014 2:56:38 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1579759

His window of opportunity is closing. I think it has already closed. The Ukrainian military is a credible force now. And the Russian speaking Ukrainians are losing their interest in Russia. If he were to invade now, he would be involved in a protracted war. A couple of months ago he probably could have taken Eastern Ukraine and a strip along the south to hookup with that breakaway republic in Moldavia in a week or two. Now it would take longer and incur causalities. Neither of which the Russian public would stand for. I hope you're right about it being closed. I sense a desperateness in Putin.......that's what worries me. It makes him prone to irrational moves. I think the most important factor are the complaints coming from people of eastern Ukraine..........that they have been treated badly under the rebels. That means if he invades he might have to contend with more than just the Ukrainian army. BTW Ukraine's new president seems to have his shit together.........for a change. And the likely stiffer sanctions would crater the economy. The Russian economy was already in trouble before the sanctions. It can only get worse. He got emboldened when Bush did nothing but bluster in the wake of Georgia. And then an investment of some troops, APCs and Kalashnikovs got him Crimea at the cost of a few, very targeted concessions. It looked like Eastern Ukraine was up for grabs, but by then the Ukrainian army had started to pull together. The addition of MANPADs equalized things a bit, but even introducing the Buks, engaging the Ukrainian SU-25s with fighters on the Russian side and even cross-border artillery wasn't enough to counter the emboldened Ukrainian army. That's right.........he thought Obama would be a bigger pushover than Bush. His second mistake was not following up right away after Crimea and taking eastern Ukraine. He gave Obama time to spin his web. His third mistake was giving the rebels enough fire power to take out a civilian airliner. So now he has an array of unpalatable choices. What he will decide to do is unclear. But I don't see a win scenario for him. If he invades, it is likely to be costly. Not that the Ukrainians can win, but they sure can hurt and slow things. And the Europeans, some of whom are calling the downing of MH17 their 9/11, would go ape shit. Not that I see NATO getting involved, but they will hit back with sanctions that hurt. If he doesn't invade, the rebels will fall and likely expose exactly how deeply involved Russia was with them. He also will lose any chance of annexing the Ukraine. In either case, the prospect of him losing power is high. If he doesn't invade, he might survive that event. If he invades, I think NATO will be forced to take action...........the Poles and the Baltics are already freaking out and they will want assurances that they are protected. I very much hope he doesn't because it could really fuck things up. One thing I learned recently is that his issue about the treatment of ethnic Russians in other countries is a legitimate gripe. Apparently, ethnic Russians for an example in the Baltics either don't have the same rights as the rest, or are treated like second class citizens. I must add if the ethnic Russians there are anything like the ethnic Russians here, I can understand why they might not be treated well...........the ones here at least are fairly arrogant, loud and obnoxious.