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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock and Bond Market-Timing: Can it be Done? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (2766)	8/7/2014 1:33:32 PM
From: Honey_Bee	Respond to of 3605

Great comments Pete...I'll be copying them to the blog. BTW: I have documentation that shows Brinker's (almost) entire asset allocation changes. I'll post it later today. PS: Sure wish you had those old Marketimers. I'd LOVE to get my hands on them. :) I have them back to January 2000 -- thanks to a friend giving me copies. I now subscribe so that I can be certain what I write about Brinker is 100% accurate. Or I should say that I am sent subscriptions to both newsletters from Littleton, Colorado -- thanks to a friend. Neither Bob Brinker will sell me subscriptions. TOOOO FUNNY that I am such persona non grata since I give them so much publicity. LOL!

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (2766)	8/7/2014 8:44:13 PM
From: ETF1	2 Recommendations Recommended By Boca_PETE Honey_Bee Respond to of 3605

As for Brinker going to "cash" after the 1987 cash and missing the rebound, I'm going to have to trust your memory on that point as I have no recollection of that happening. When I do remember is that the phrase "CAUGHT IN THE SWITCHES" applied well to Brinker's radio/newsletter calls of that time period from my viewpoint. PETE, Here's my firsthand experience on this matter. I know from personal experience that Brinker had to have botched that timing call. Here's why: I took out a subscription to Hulbert's Financial Digest with the express purpose of studying the financial newsletters, so I could choose one or more of them to subscribe to. I always compared the performance of different financial newsletters to the performance of the stock market itself, which Hulbert represented by the Wilshire 5000. The time frame was the very early 1990's. I noticed that Brinker's Model Portfolios I and II substantially underperformed the market . (I didn't compare Portfolio III with the market, as it is theoretically a 50/50 portfolio). It didn't seem to me that this substantial underperformance could have been due to poor mutual fund picks. It was very striking to me, and I saw this in many of Hulbert's monthly issues. I wondered for a long time how Brinker could have underperformed the market so much from inception till the early 1990s. I knew something must have happened. Turns out it was due to being out of the market while it was rising, after he got out due to his bad market timing call. I think it is shameful that Brinker hides these things. Why not be transparent and just admit that he blew it? Moreover after he raised 60-65% cash prior to the year 2000 debacle, I have painful memories of being caught in the switches myself from trying to profit from Brinker's "counter-trend rally" short-term trade recommendations which I take responsibility for enhancing the pain by getting into those "Double Effect" ETF's. I don't think I'll be attempting that again, for sure. I also took Brinker's advice given on the Special Subscriber's Bulletin. I purchased exactly what he recommended, the QQQ's. He never advised a leveraged ("double effect") ETF. Here's that brilliant timing call. I believe it was October 16, 2000, but don't quote me on the date : "MARKETIMER is projecting a significant countertrend rally which is expected to be led by the Nasdaq 100 Index. We expect this rally to persist over a period of approximately 2-4 months, and to generate Nasdaq gains in excess of 20% from the vicinity of the recently established Nasdaq closing low point. . We view this projected Nasdaq rally as a significant trading opportunity for MARKETIMER subscribers seeking potential short-term capital gains. Our clear vehicle of choice for this opportunity is the Nasdaq 100, which is traded on the American Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol QQQ. . We recommend MARKETIMER subscribers with aggressive objectives invest 30% to 50% of existing CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares in order to exploit this opportunity. Also, we recommend subscribers with conservative investment objectives invest 20% to 30% of CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares in order to take advantage of this opportunity. . MARKETIMER will provide follow up guidance for this short-term opportunity in regular monthly editions, and, if necessary, in follow up bulletins. . We recommend subscribers interested in taking advantage of this recommendation act immediately." Well, I "acted immediately" and bought QQQ For market timing advise, I now regularly read Sy Harding's Seasonal Timing calls and recommendations in considering my own timing decisions and sometimes fund choices I'm not very familiar with Sy Harding, although I notice he writes for Forbes.com, so I'll be able to read what he says. He seems to be popular. I'm more interested in reading what a guy named James Stack has to say. Unfortunately, you have to subscribe to his InvesTech newsletter to get his writings, and I'm not a subscriber. This is the guy that Bob Brinker many years ago used to call "The Montana Bear" ! He turns out to be a highly intelligent and astute market historian and investment advisor. And Dan Sullivan, a market timer who writes The Chartist Mutual Fund Letter. Actually, James Stack says he is not a market timer. Happy (and successful) investing to you Boca_PETE

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (2766)	8/11/2014 3:38:35 PM
From: Honey_Bee	1 Recommendation Recommended By Boca_PETE Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3605

Pete, here is the document that was compiled by several of Bob Brinker's long-time fans and critics. This was originally posted on Kirk Lindstrom's Suite101 Brinker boards (before they were destroyed). If we go back in history, we see that the only time he went to 100% cash it was a mistake to do so. That was in January 1988 after the Black Monday market crash in October 1987. That was a very costly mistake because the market climbed considerably before he finally got back to a fully invested asset allocation in January 1991. Here is a complete roster of Brinker's asset allocation. I can personally vouch for all of it except 1982: Pen-name Math Junkie wrote: “Some have raised questions about the allocation percentage from 1982 to 1987, so I have added a question mark to reflect this. As Steve did, I am retaining information from radio broadcasts, and it is labeled as such.” * Aug 14, 1982….equities @ 100% (?)……....777 (Announced on local radio in New York he recommended being fully invested. He had been mildly bullish to bullish on NBR the previous April, and is said to have been recommending dollar cost averaging prior to August 14th.) * Aug 21, 1987…..equities @ 100% ................2710 * Oct 19, 1987……equities @ 100%................1841 (Black Monday: Dow Down 695 or 25.6% From Top.) * Jan. 1988…….equities @ Zero.…………...2015 (Went to 100% cash & told listeners he was bearish after the market was 9.5% above bottom, taking the brunt of most of the bear decline.) * Feb. 1989… equities @ 50%........................2342 (Market up 27% from the bottom.) Nov 1989....equities @ 75%.........................2650 Feb 1990…. equities @ 40%..................2559 Mar.1990…..equities @ 50%..................2635 Apr. 1990….. equities @ 65%.................2687 May 1990…...equities @ 75%.................2656 July..1990…...equities @ 85%.................2840 July 18, 1990: Dow @ 3016....(Bull peak: up 50% since Jan. 1988) * Oct. 12, 1990: Dow @ 2398 (Gulf War bear bottom. Down 20.5% since bull peak.Market is back to where it was in Feb 1989 where Brinker went form 0% to 50%) * Dec. 1990....equities @ 95%......2565 * Jan. 1991…. equities @ 100%..................2550 (Finally back to fully invested: Dow up 26.7% since going to 0% equities. Missed out on a large portion of market gains from when he went to 100% cash at 2015 in January 1988.) For the next nine years (January 1991 to January 2000), Brinker remained fully invested and made himself a legend. (Rode out the 19% selloff in 1998.) * Jan. 2000… equities @ 40% ………Dow: 11, 122 (Lowered equities 60% within 5.1% of S&P top, and recommended putting cash in money market funds .) * Aug. 2000… equities @ 35% ...........Dow: 10,688 (65% now in cash reserves) * Oct. 16, 2000…equities @ 35%......QQQ = $83 (Told subscribers to put 20% - 50% of (the 65%) cash reserves into QQQ for counter-trend rally.) * Jan. 8, 2001…equities @35%....QQQ = $62.44 (Again suggested putting 20% to 50% of cash reserves into QQQ. Repeated same recommendation in February through May 2001 issues.) * June 8, 2001….QQQ = 47.35 (Placed on hold) * Sept. 21, 2001…equities @ 35%...(Dow 8236 – hit 7926.93 intraday.) * Oct. 2002…equities @ 35%...21% actually remaining in equities…Dow 8950 (Still recommended 35% equities, but P1 in newsletter is 21% equities (not counting QQQ trades apparently due to lack of rebalancing.) * March 12, 2002…23% actual balance in equities …Dow 10,586 (DJIA +28.5% from 9/23/01 closing. DJIA same level as August 2000 5% sell.) * Oct 9, 2002…19% balance in equities…Dow 7286 (Cyclical low so far. QQQ = 20.06, down 75.8% from 10/16/00 buy at $83.) * March 11, 2003: equities @ 100% …Dow 7568; S&P 807.48. (Issued bulletin on website before open based on March 10th close. QQQ = 24.01; S&P500 = 807.48; SPY = 81.32. He ended all guidance for existing QQQ positions in March, 2003.) * March 15, 2003….Announced 100% to weekend audience. * March 17, 2003 (Monday)….Dow 8142 (QQQ = 26.60; S&P500 = 862.79; SPY = 86.78 typical buy levels for weekend and snail mail followers who use mutual funds.) * April 5, 2003….100%...(Recommended new equity purchases below S&P 810, and dollar cost averaging otherwise. Stopped mentioning existing QQQ positions in the newsletter text. It was never again accounted for in his reports of newsletter performance.) Bob Brinker's Marketimer model portfolio stock allocations have remained 100% invested since March 10, 2003. [This data was compiled by Math Junkie, Pete from Stamford, CT. MrGreenJeans, DanG. Kirk Lindstrom and SteveT.