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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FJB who wrote (11550)	12/15/1997 6:53:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 25960

Robert is there much inventory of lasers at the steppers manufacturers? By the way, CYMI sure looks appetizing here, another day or too and my patience will give up and I'll pull the trigger, again. Zeev

To: FJB who wrote (11550)	12/16/1997 2:10:00 AM
From: Yakov Lurye	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

re: forecast models for 1998 shipments. Bob, I was not trying to forecast the number of lasers that CYMEr will ship in 1998, but rather to check if under fairly conservative assumptions CYMER can beat the (fairly bleak) 1998 analysts estimates. Note that I also did not include any service and parts revenues or R&D shipments for unknown purposes (like 2 lasers shipped last quarter) Your estimate of 550-600 lasers is reasonable - provided the caveats about possible competition. Come to think of it, it is almost a must for the reasonable stock performance later in 1998 given the management guidance for the next two quarters. If CYMER ships 125-135 lasers in 4Q97 and 1Q98, any dropoff later in 1998 resulting in less than 500 lasers for the year will not be looked too kindly upon, even if the margins increase... As some investment guru had said about CYMER, this stock is not for faint of heart. I would love to see some additional manifestation of trends that could favor CYMER, for example, a confirmation of increased DUV/I-line ratio in shipments. To this extent, what do you make of a recent article being discussed on UTEK thread - during the conference in Japan their president had stated that they are reevaluating their business plans for 1998. UTEK provides i-line tools - could it be that they are worried about equipment budgets being reallocated towards DUV? Of course, it's entirely possible that he was talking about P-GILD plans, or was worrying about the lower budgets in general - this wouldn't benefit anybody in semi-equip sector... I'll try to find and post a reference to the article Regards, Y.