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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (13334)	12/15/1997 1:38:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, Do you think we'll see the bottom within the next 30 days? Will we need to form a base lasting till next summer? Dave thinks we won't see 30 anytime in 1998. Are you that pessimistic? I think we are within 10-15% of the low at this time. AMAT has been hammered hard, along with the rest of the techs, and investors are realizing that this is a short/mid term event which has been factored into the stock price now. I'm going out on a limb here, during the next 30 days AMAT will just lanquish in the mid $20's and will likely see its' low during this time. Don't forget that there is a tremendous amount of cash on the sidelines,from the funds clearing the books for '97, that will come back into the market in January/February looking for sound stocks that are underpriced but that have excellent fundamentals. AMAT will be one of those stocks. My reasoning: 1. Strongest/largest semi-equipment manufacturer. 2. Huge backlog of "captured" revenues to support manufacturing and R&D efforts. 3. Very large reserve cash position to offset temporary industry downturn. 4. "Next Generation" enabling technology leadership for 300mm and sub 0.25uM device geometries. 5. "Full package" world class technology and engineering/service support. 6. Leading edge process technology capability and support. 7. Outstanding management team with proven track record even in the face of industry uncertainty, lots of expert first hand experience here. (the comfort factor for investors based on previous downturn results) 8. Long term technology roadmap and R&D supremecy. These are but a few of the "intagible" benefits that make AMAT a compelling buy at these levels on expectation of future market growth and technology improvements. Looking for low-mid $30's in mid/late Jan '98, and a trading range of $27-35 into 2nd quarter'98. Just my opinion, BB