Was there a coup in Iraq? What we know and what we don't know
Updated by Zack Beauchamp on August 10, 2014, 8:48 p.m.
( I'm missing Saddam about right now. )
The Iraqi political system is in crisis. Late Sunday, at 12 am Baghdad time, was the deadline for Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to form a new governing coalition in the country's parliament. He missed the deadline, Maliki announced that he would be staying on as prime minister anyway. Right now, Maliki is still acting as the country's leader, but without a majority political coalition, which means it's not clear if he's actually supposed to have that authority.
The facts of what's happening in Baghdad are far from clear at this point. Is this a coup? Are there really troops seizing Baghdad, as has been reported by some outlets? What happens next? Here's a short breakdown of what we know — and don't — about this political crisis in Iraq.
What we know
This political crisis started because Iraqi parties couldn't agree to form a government. Iraq's political parties didn't come to an agreement, by the Sunday midnight deadline, that would create a majority coalition. Maliki's State of Law Coalition won a plurality of Iraqi seats in the April elections, but he couldn't figure out how to put together a coalition large enough to get a governing majority. Part of the problem here is factionalism: Iraqi politics are divided along largely sectarian lines. Sunnis, Shias, and Kurds mainly vote for sectarian parties (Maliki is part of the Shia majority), and there's also competition even inside the sectarian blocs. So right now, there's no agreed-upon majority government in Iraq, but Maliki is claiming the premiership anyway.
Maliki is staying on as Prime Minister — for now. Maliki was very clear on this point in his speech on the Sunday midnight deadline: he's staying in office and demanding that Iraq's president, Fuad Masum, grant his party a mandate to put together a cabinet, so that he can keep governing. So unless Maliki gets kicked out of office, which is still possible, he's holding on. The question then is whether Maliki stays, and if he does stay whether he does it by force or by political maneuvering.
Maliki is planning to sue Iraq's president over this."Today I will file a formal complaint to the federal court against the president," Maliki said in his speech. Iraq's presidency is usually pretty ceremonial, but the president is responsible for giving the election winner (in this case, Maliki's party) the authority to form form a new government. It is true that Article 76 of the Iraqi constitution says the president has to do that within 15 days of the election. Masum didn't, although he would likely argue that's because Maliki never got enough parties to join him for a governing majority. But Maliki thinks Masum violated the constitution and is suing him over it.
What we don't know
For instance: are these dudes in Baghdad now? Mohammed Sawaf/AFP/Getty Images
Is this a coup?As of yet, we have no idea whether Maliki's refusal to leave office counts as him taking power in a coup. For something to qualify as a coup, the person or faction launching the coup has to take office by force ( here's an interesting post by a political scientist on the definition of "coup," if you're curious). So far, we have little evidence that Maliki has resorted to force to hold on to office. We'll see if that remains true.
Are there troops securing Baghdad for Maliki?Some reports say Iraqi troops are deploying in the streets of Baghdad, but those reports are sketchy at this point. This AFP piece, for instance, says there's "massive security deployment, akin to measures taken in a state of emergency, across the capital Baghdad." That may or may not be true; AFP cites an Iraqi policeman and an "official at the Interior ministry." There's very little evidence for some of these claims, including the theory that Maliki has surrounded Masum's office with tanks.
Will Maliki be able to stay in power at all? There's no doubt Maliki is in a bad political position. One Iraqi report claims that almost half of State of Law MPs no longer support Maliki. And after all he couldn't get enough support to form a government, so it's reasonable to wonder if he will be forced to resign, or even pushed out somehow. There was a bizarre fight over control of State of Law's social media accounts between pro- and anti-Maliki factions. "His 'base' is paper thin, despite electoral results," Ziad al-Ali, an expert on Iraqi politics, writes. But it's still way too early to declare Maliki down-and-out for good.
Will the US side against Maliki, or even help push him out? The US is a big player in Iraqi politics, often acting as a formal mediator in disputes. The US is also now helping Iraq against ISIS, so the Americans could play a big role in this crisis. The Obama administration has been unhappy with Maliki for a while, whom they see as creating some of the conditions that allowed ISIS to take over half of the country, but it's not yet clear what they'll do in response to this crisis. They could back Maliki (that's unlikely), could try to mediate to form a new government, could quietly ask Maliki to leave, or might even publicly demand it. The closest we've seen yet to a formal position is a tweet from Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Brett McGurk:
So not necessarily asking Maliki to step down, but definitely not supporting him either. |
