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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Alias Shrugged who wrote (5149)12/15/1997 8:54:00 AM
From: Platter  Respond to of 95453
 
A puzzling week for the once powerful group.ÿ After staging a great
rally only two weeks ago, Tuesday the tide shifted and sent the group
back down.ÿ Tuesday started the selloff which gained momentum as the
week progressed.ÿ The sector has retraced and is now retesting the
lows set a couple of weeks ago.ÿ As the 15% rebound proved, this group
of stocks has the muscle to make a move up, but when the market is in
a serious selloff, the Drillers, being momentum driven to an extent,
tend to move sharply.ÿ Nothing has changed fundamentally.ÿ There
wasn't a bunch of downgrades.ÿ There were zero earnings warnings.ÿ In
fact there were several upgrades and a split announcement on the week.ÿ
With this group the trick is to simply wait for the selling to stop
and when they reverse, capture some of the move up.ÿ Tuesday I opened
up the discussion on trading plans with the question "did you take
profits?"ÿ In this type of market you need to adhere to your plan and
take the profits quickly.ÿ Yes you may leave some on the table, but
reducing your exposure by keeping trades short is critical to staying
profitable.

The plays remain the same as were identified in previous issues.ÿ I
will present some noteworthy news items today, but am not going to
simply repeat the same information that was contained in last Sunday's
issue.ÿ If you need that issue, drop us a note and we will be glad to
forward it to you. The Asian disease should have minimal impact on the
Drillers. The only big risk is a major drop in oil prices that could
weaken the strong demand for their products.ÿ However, with the cycle
time to build rigs so long, majors likely would be very reluctant to
lose their place in line by canceling a contract. There is plenty of
opportunities for the mostlyÿ domestic companies to maintain their
tremendous earnings growth.

This sector is not going to fall over and die.ÿ A multitude of forces
have caused the correction in the sector.ÿ After a tremendous year,
many portfolio managers sold their holdings to lock in profits. The
sector's long-term fundamentals remain in place.ÿ Strong earnings and
revenue growth, strong worldwide demand, high utilization/day rates
and increased operating efficiencies are all intact - if not better.ÿ
Without a doubt the market as it usually does, overreacted to several
events from the increase in OPEC's production, which turns out to be a
non-issue as most OPEC nations couldn't increase production even if
they wanted to. A recent fall in oil prices didn't help, but the price
remains a high enough to make drilling activities highly profitable.ÿ
The pullback late last week affords us the opportunity to pick up
shares of many of the group at significant discounts.ÿ The rally two
weeks ago clearly indicates that there are a lot of buyers out there
who haven't forgotten about the Drillers.ÿ Favorites include starting
from the most attractive:

Fride Goldman (FGII) - Tremendous earnings growth.ÿ A company on fire.
Marine Drilling (MDCO) - Way oversold and has a lot of irons in the
fire.
Schlumberger (SLB) - Positive earnings revisions this week.
Tidewater (TDW) - The best of the boat builders.
Cliffs Drilling (CDG) - Tremendous earnings last quarter.ÿ Oversold.
Ensco International, Inc.(ESV)
Halliburton (HAL)
Rowan (RDC)
Global Marine (GLM) - Upgraded this week.
BJ Services (BJS) - Just announced a split.
Bayard Drilling Technologies (BDI)
Veritas (VTS) - Just announced record earnings this week.
Global Industries, Ltd. (GLBL) - New contract this week.
Input Output (IO) - Upgraded to aggressive buy this week.
Varco International (VRC)
Baker Hughes (BHI)
Gulf Island Fabr. (GIFI)
Atwood (ATW) - Upgraded
Dresser Industries (DI)
Coflexip (CXIPY) - Tuesday, CXIPY was upgraded toÿ a "buy"
Reading & Bates (RB)
Nepark Resources (NR)
Patterson Energy (PTEN)
Pool Energy (PESC)
EVI, Inc. (EVI)
UTI Energy (UTI)
Cooper Cameron Corp. (RON)
Transocean Offshore Inc (RIG)
Western Atlas, Inc. (WAI) - Takeover rumors flying.
Petroleum Geo Service (PGO)

News and Notes

Global Marine (GLM) and Atwood (ATW) -ÿ Jefferies & Co said on Friday it
raised its rating on shares of Global Marine Inc (GLM) and Atwood
Oceanics Inc (ATW) to a "buy."ÿ GLM was previously rated accumulate and
ATW had been rated hold.

Weatherford Enterra Inc (WII) said Friday its board authorized a program
to purchase up to $100 million of the company's common stock. The
repurchase program is expected to be accretive to Weatherford's earnings
per share, the company said in a news release. "We believe our stock is
undervalued at this time, given the company's strong financial
performance and significant cash flow in 1997, and that the repurchase of
our shares is an attractive investment at current prices.

Taken from the right line split report 12/14/97 issue



To: Alias Shrugged who wrote (5149)12/15/1997 9:13:00 AM
From: Big Dog  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95453
 
<<Maybe for Christmas, we can sign Mike Simmons up foir the "Pie of the Day" Club?>>

NOW YOU'RE TALKIN' !!!!!! Do you have a URL for that club?

(I had some good Buttermilk pie yesterday. Yum Yum)

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 15, 1997--On December 11, the Texas Supreme Court unanimously ruled in favor of Schlumberger in a lawsuit originally filed against the company in Houston, Texas. The lawsuit involved the validity of a 1988 settlement and release in connection with an incidental business venture. The decision reverses a 1993 jury verdict against Schlumberger of approximately $75 million, and dismisses all claims against the company. As previously disclosed, the company had made no provision in its consolidated financial statements for this matter. Consequently, this favorable outcome will have no effect on fourth quarter net income. Schlumberger is a worldwide leader in technical services with 60,000 employees and operations in over 100 countries. In 1996, revenue was $8.96 billion.



To: Alias Shrugged who wrote (5149)12/15/1997 10:43:00 AM
From: Czechsinthemail  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
Mike,
Having the market focus on oil prices rather than drilling activity is creating a tremendous opportunity. Drilling industry performance is much more closely linked with oil consumption than oil price. While it can be disconcerting to watch your shares dropping in price, shares bought on the dip will likely do extremely well.
FWIW, oil prices are up somewhat today.
Baird