To: Alias Shrugged who wrote (5149 ) 12/15/1997 8:54:00 AM From: Platter Respond to of 95453
A puzzling week for the once powerful group.ÿ After staging a great rally only two weeks ago, Tuesday the tide shifted and sent the group back down.ÿ Tuesday started the selloff which gained momentum as the week progressed.ÿ The sector has retraced and is now retesting the lows set a couple of weeks ago.ÿ As the 15% rebound proved, this group of stocks has the muscle to make a move up, but when the market is in a serious selloff, the Drillers, being momentum driven to an extent, tend to move sharply.ÿ Nothing has changed fundamentally.ÿ There wasn't a bunch of downgrades.ÿ There were zero earnings warnings.ÿ In fact there were several upgrades and a split announcement on the week.ÿ With this group the trick is to simply wait for the selling to stop and when they reverse, capture some of the move up.ÿ Tuesday I opened up the discussion on trading plans with the question "did you take profits?"ÿ In this type of market you need to adhere to your plan and take the profits quickly.ÿ Yes you may leave some on the table, but reducing your exposure by keeping trades short is critical to staying profitable. The plays remain the same as were identified in previous issues.ÿ I will present some noteworthy news items today, but am not going to simply repeat the same information that was contained in last Sunday's issue.ÿ If you need that issue, drop us a note and we will be glad to forward it to you. The Asian disease should have minimal impact on the Drillers. The only big risk is a major drop in oil prices that could weaken the strong demand for their products.ÿ However, with the cycle time to build rigs so long, majors likely would be very reluctant to lose their place in line by canceling a contract. There is plenty of opportunities for the mostlyÿ domestic companies to maintain their tremendous earnings growth. This sector is not going to fall over and die.ÿ A multitude of forces have caused the correction in the sector.ÿ After a tremendous year, many portfolio managers sold their holdings to lock in profits. The sector's long-term fundamentals remain in place.ÿ Strong earnings and revenue growth, strong worldwide demand, high utilization/day rates and increased operating efficiencies are all intact - if not better.ÿ Without a doubt the market as it usually does, overreacted to several events from the increase in OPEC's production, which turns out to be a non-issue as most OPEC nations couldn't increase production even if they wanted to. A recent fall in oil prices didn't help, but the price remains a high enough to make drilling activities highly profitable.ÿ The pullback late last week affords us the opportunity to pick up shares of many of the group at significant discounts.ÿ The rally two weeks ago clearly indicates that there are a lot of buyers out there who haven't forgotten about the Drillers.ÿ Favorites include starting from the most attractive: Fride Goldman (FGII) - Tremendous earnings growth.ÿ A company on fire. Marine Drilling (MDCO) - Way oversold and has a lot of irons in the fire. Schlumberger (SLB) - Positive earnings revisions this week. Tidewater (TDW) - The best of the boat builders. Cliffs Drilling (CDG) - Tremendous earnings last quarter.ÿ Oversold. Ensco International, Inc.(ESV) Halliburton (HAL) Rowan (RDC) Global Marine (GLM) - Upgraded this week. BJ Services (BJS) - Just announced a split. Bayard Drilling Technologies (BDI) Veritas (VTS) - Just announced record earnings this week. Global Industries, Ltd. (GLBL) - New contract this week. Input Output (IO) - Upgraded to aggressive buy this week. Varco International (VRC) Baker Hughes (BHI) Gulf Island Fabr. (GIFI) Atwood (ATW) - Upgraded Dresser Industries (DI) Coflexip (CXIPY) - Tuesday, CXIPY was upgraded toÿ a "buy" Reading & Bates (RB) Nepark Resources (NR) Patterson Energy (PTEN) Pool Energy (PESC) EVI, Inc. (EVI) UTI Energy (UTI) Cooper Cameron Corp. (RON) Transocean Offshore Inc (RIG) Western Atlas, Inc. (WAI) - Takeover rumors flying. Petroleum Geo Service (PGO) News and Notes Global Marine (GLM) and Atwood (ATW) -ÿ Jefferies & Co said on Friday it raised its rating on shares of Global Marine Inc (GLM) and Atwood Oceanics Inc (ATW) to a "buy."ÿ GLM was previously rated accumulate and ATW had been rated hold. Weatherford Enterra Inc (WII) said Friday its board authorized a program to purchase up to $100 million of the company's common stock. The repurchase program is expected to be accretive to Weatherford's earnings per share, the company said in a news release. "We believe our stock is undervalued at this time, given the company's strong financial performance and significant cash flow in 1997, and that the repurchase of our shares is an attractive investment at current prices. Taken from the right line split report 12/14/97 issue