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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock and Bond Market-Timing: Can it be Done? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ETF1 who wrote (2779)	8/12/2014 10:31:52 PM
From: Honey_Bee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3605

Outstanding post ETF1! Right on target on all points. You last paragraph is exactly my opinion of Bob Brinker too. I could not have written as well as you did. :)

To: ETF1 who wrote (2779)	8/13/2014 11:39:26 AM
From: Kirk ©	1 Recommendation Recommended By Honey_Bee Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3605

Excellent post! If you got your data from past issues of MT, then look at those issues when the market bottomed in 2008/2009 and see what he said about dollar cost averaging... I seem to recall he took DCA off and said wait for a test of the 2009 low which never came so he finally got back into DCA when the market was up significantly from its 666 low. I don't think he identified a "buy level" until 1100 or so... In the 1990s he under performed the markets due to poor fund selection and high expenses for the funds. He currently shows higher than market returns since he and Dilbert don't count the QQQ advice that clearly was meant for cash reserves. He managed funds at that time were in the QQQs and their returns suffered. The most recent report in HFD shows he is under performing again and a big part of that is he sold his Nasdaq100 fund that he got into with cash reserves for model portfolios just before the NASDAQ greatly outperformed the markets. He was probably anticipating a big correction as he was advising DCA on weakness after that move. As for integrity, the money management company that he advertised in his newsletter and used his name to advertise (I get some ads still via email) was sued for delivering less than advertised by Brinker returns. It looks like they settled but you can still find the original complaint. When I looked at the time frame, it appears to me that they couldn't get the advertised returns because they could not use cash to buy the QQQ near the bottom in 2003 and the claim says they were using loaded funds to make up for the fees they paid Brinker... or something similar. BJ Group - Genworth Financial Class Action and reuters.com UNDERPERFORMANCE The plaintiffs claimed that Genworth's marketing materials touted the company's "exclusive partnership" with Brinker, in which it would implement Brinker's recommendations by selecting mutual funds for clients. They contended that Genworth did not actually do that, causing their returns to trail those in Brinker's "Marketimer" portfolio in every calendar year from 2003 to 2008. For example, in 2003 Brinker's portfolio allegedly returned 43.4 percent while a BJ Group portfolio earned 29.1 percent. Meanwhile, in 2008, the year of the financial crisis, Brinker's portfolio allegedly fell 37.4 percent, while the BJ Group portfolio lost 39.6 percent. To me, it seems simple that if you don't have as much cash to dump into the market in 2003 near the lows, then you can't get the higher than reported returns....

To: ETF1 who wrote (2779)	8/13/2014 6:06:10 PM
From: Boca_PETE	1 Recommendation Recommended By Honey_Bee Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3605

ETF1 Robert, Who was it who said "every time someone thinks they've found the key to the stock market, some s.o.b. changes the lock!" After getting caught in the QQQ switches from Bob's counter-trend rally recommended aggressive trades, I totally agree with your post. I guess if an investor chooses to time the market, they need to pick someone that sounds reasonable with the understanding that it's unlikely that timer will make correct calls all the time. At least Brinker gave it a try - I'm positive based upon my perception of his character, that he never made incorrect calls on purpose. Hubris is a dangerous attitude to adopt. JMHO. P :-)