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Biotech / Medical : 2014 Biotech Charity Contest -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BulbaMan who wrote (378)	8/16/2014 3:30:07 PM
From: Rocky9	Respond to of 487

Thanks.

To: BulbaMan who wrote (378)	8/16/2014 8:49:39 PM
From: Robohogs	Respond to of 487

In real life, I was short 50 contracts of qcor puts down $35 from its last close. Interestingly, those $57.5 puts effectively become $31ish MNK puts out 1.5 years. Modelled value becomes $0.5 from $2-3 shortly before close but I cannot exit as bid ask absurd (expected such). Interesting that because of this lack of liquidity, the adusted QCOR options way out in time trade at a 5% IV premium to regular MNK options. I will be curious to see how long it takes for shorts to go after MNK and drive up IVs. A mid-dated long strangle might work there or certain calender spreads going long way out and short short term. Problem with calendars is you have to pick directionality. Thoughts? I had bets on both the much discussed VRTX and QCOR option situations (Peter's thread) but got cold feet and had closed out a massively wide short strangle before the event and its relative non-movement vs. expected move - oh well. Anyone seeing other opportunities in option land? Only other bio option plays right now are an illiquid tail in ITMN $32 puts - wish I had bought calls vs selling puts as my theory played out exactly to plan (very rare), some long ago sold FLDM short puts which killed me (just rolled down and out but 2 days too early) and some longer dated NBIX short puts sold a long time ago. Jon PS. These complicated event plays used to be my strength and were interesting because you had to try to protect against massive moves while milking the vol. setting the binary target prices was key. On QCOR I had more risk than usual but took a bigger slug on only after the meetings were set and right at announcement when vols were still high correctly assuming massive DD had to have been done and questioning short thesis that FDA would pull Athcar and that no FDA comment indicated problems. Got lucky!