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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stsimon who wrote (107226)	8/26/2014 11:17:08 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217576

hello stsimon, i fear you are right. am teaching kids to refuse to accept packages and drinks from strangers and casual acquaintances etc etc along w/ a bunch of other 'never do's' society for the larger part appears to be breaking down, and w/ all the unemployed / unemployable kids coming to the fore, more intractable, etc etc in the mean time i remind self of this discussion we had back in 2012 Message 28350220 <<There are several equations to the simultaneous equation problem, the common solution to all the equations simultaneously is the 'null' set Equation 1: annual deficit, dictated for the important part by entitlements that shall go exponential, unfundable except by printing; if attempt to fund by tax would impact GDP even more than already impacted Equation 2: accumulated deficit (aka total debt and off-balance sheet obligations) that is mathematically unpayable given GDP limitations except by printing, and all currently held at low low low financing rate Equation 3: baby boomers' median and average nav, and the dead hand of demographics, ethnic and inter generational, whereby taxing the young to support the old shall be an increasing problem, thus requiring the tee up of more printing Say GDP is between 14-15 tril Interest rate on sovereign debt is between 1 and 2 percent Accumulated federal debt is 14-15 tril Accumulated federal obligations is between 150-200 tril First wave of baby boomers reaching earlier planned retirement and counting on distributions out of the accumulated federal obligations, and out of annual deficits Should interest rate rise, the gaming blows up, because then printing is required to pay interest, or still more borrowings at ever higher interest rate Must print, at ever faster rate, and after that, print some more The bad news? This time things are different. The good news? We know what they must do in the end-game, and are allowed to front run their end-game.>> ... to which we hoped <<... The issue cannot resolved through tax increases alone. There will likely be significant budget reductions regardless of who is elected in November. The war machine and entitlements will both require substantial cuts. Where we differ is that I believe it is possible, though not guaranteed, that the country will find the will to do so at the 11th hour. Inflation will also play a role, either at the 2% Fed goal or at something more substantial. Obviously the latter favors your gold position.>> ... am wondering what hour you figure we now are at? by observation here in france, i note while the clock still has much to run, europe ex-germany growth must be at or below zero the economies are just burning legacy fat and on fumes as the anti-russia sanctions bite, germany shall likely evolve from coughing to choking, and the lesser economies may well catch airborne ebola in such arena, any monetary this and fiscal that merely facilitates faster burn rate of legacy fat legacy fat, even when copious, is finite given that all large economies have existential needs as well as capacity, i may have to extend out my window of definitive crisis from 2018 - 2026 to 2020 - 2030. it basically means we lose several generations of graduates to money inflation wastrelism. cheers, tj