To: BillyG who wrote (26685 ) 12/15/1997 3:30:00 PM From: DiViT Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 50808
DVD must get its act together to hit it big Alexander Wolfe ÿ 12/15/97 Electronic Engineering Times Page 41 Copyright 1997 CMP Publications Inc. ÿ Their rosy expectations to the contrary, proponents of the digital video disk ( DVD ) will find their Christmas stockings filled with a big lump of coal this year. Simply put, though the technology is impressive, DVD is turning out to be a dud in the marketplace. Sure, some 1.2 million DVD -ROM drives have shipped to date, according to authoritative estimates. And supporters say that millions more will appear in PCs in 1998. But those figures pale against what could have been achieved, had DVD marketeers gotten their acts together early in the game. Instead, confusion reigned as overlapping marketing thrusts for DVD on PCs and for higher-priced, standalone consumer DVD drives kept buyers away in droves. The situation mirrors the mid-1980s, when the CD-ROM got off to a similarly slow start. If DVD is to live up to its initial promise, several stumbling blocks must be removed. According to Ken Wirt, vice president of marketing at Diamond Multimedia Systems, "What's missing is software-there aren't enough movies and there's very little computer software on DVD today." Also at issue, warns Martin Levine, editor of the newsletter Digital Technology Report, are continuing disputes about the DVD standard, both in terms of media and recordable formats. "There are lingering animosities among the companies that designed the products," he told me. Most ominous is the " DVD killer" waiting in the wings. It's called Digital Video Express (Divx), and it's getting heavy support from Circuit City, the consumer-electronics store chain that's now expanding heavily in the Northeast. Essentially a disposable version of DVD , each $4.99 Divx disk comes with an encryption lock, which allows unlimited plays for 48 hours. Why pay the $20-and-up asking prices common for standard DVDs when there's a far cheaper alternative? Hey, I enjoyed seeing Kurt Russell in Breakdown-it was well worth the $2.50 it cost me to rent the VHS video-but I don't want to own a copy of the flick. From Hollywood's perspective, greed is the force driving DVD . Why sell a few thousand copies of a tape to video stores, which consumers then rent at $2.50 a pop (with no added revenue to the studio), if you can extract 10 times that amount from all comers? For consumers, movies on DVD are a delight to watch, so cost will be at the root of whether the technology becomes a winner. Right now, as Levine noted, "There's still no sense of whether DVD , on the movie-player side, is going to be a hit, a flop or something in between." On the computer side of the equation, there's no disputing that DVD fills a need. Thanks to its massive data-storage capacity, the disks will become the standard means of distributing the bloatware spewed forth by Microsoft and its competitors. But what computer users really want isn't DVD -ROM; it's recordable DVD . Here, Hitachi has taken the lead, shipping the first rewritable DVD -RAM drives, which hold 2.6 Gbytes of data. Unfortunately, Philips and Sony are going off on their own with a competing recordable format. The fracture threatens to slow deployment, raising the spectre that DVD -RAM could face the same stumbling rollout as DVD -ROM. Here's hoping that the DVD leaders have learned something from Sony's Betamax debacle. Because if they don't iron out their differences, Christmastime will be pretty bleak next year. -Alexander Wolfe is managing editor, computers and communications, for EE Times.