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Technology Stocks : Adobe (adbe) opinions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Connolly who wrote (2030)	12/15/1997 2:54:00 PM
From: Sam	Respond to of 3111

"note that postscript is only 24% of Adobe's revenue. .21 x .24= 5% of adobe's revenue at risk." Yes, but Postscript revenue is huge margins. And they are already going to be hit by HWP not using Adobe Postscript in some their products for the first time this quarter (announced a year ago). The comment on Acrobat was probably made in jest, I would guess. Going to be a messy quarter for Adobe. And on top of that, Far East sales will obviously be impacted in some way that no one can exactly compute yet. Shoot first, ask question later. That is the mood toward tech stocks these days. Shades of 1983, for those who remember June of that year (I do--it was the first time I got hit hard. Unhappily, not the last time.) For those who don't remember it, just hope that the analogy doesn't hold. If so, we are in for a very nasty year in '98 for tech stocks. And possibly '99 as well.

To: Mike Connolly who wrote (2030)	12/15/1997 2:55:00 PM
From: Pete Mason	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3111

>> Am I missing something here -- what do Adobe's Acrobat sales have to do with EFII's color printer driver sales? << Sorry for being unclear; I've always been of the opinion that Adobe has lavished gigantic sums on Acrobat development, far beyond what that product could ever earn them in return (sort of like the money they spent on Frame, only internal). So when I spoke of money dropping to the bottom line, I was snidely adding that the Acrobat team would probably eat some of it before it got there, since they have eaten so much Adobe revenue in the past. I was trying to make an amusing aside, but I guess my message would have been better with that unsaid (but I couldn't resist). >> And note that postscript is only 24% of Adobe's revenue. .21 x .24= 5% of adobe's revenue at risk.<< Revenue is one thing; profit is another. PostScript is EXTREMELY profitable for Adobe; anything that threatens any part of that is going to be viewed with concern on the street. And it's still a reasonable point that if EFII's having problem selling printers, that could signal broader problems in the printer market. Plus, let's face it, Adobe does not grow its revenues particularly quickly for a leading, successful high-tech company. Given a relatively moribund (to use a word from this thread) state of revenues, any shortfall is going to have a magnified effect on the stock. Not to say ADBE isn't a buy at 33-34... -- Pete