To: Maurice Winn who wrote (6509 ) 12/15/1997 2:45:00 PM From: JMD Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
Maurice, won't argue that, at least in a free market economy, 'something always comes along' to eat in to a monopoly market position. However, there are some industries where the barriers to entry are higher than others and few that I can think of are tougher to jump into than the satellite biz. In addition to the expense, technical complexity, political maneuvering, and on and on, there is one tiny other little problem: the real estate is limited and tightly regulated. This of course refers to orbital slots--even if you've got Bill Gates and Bill McCaw type dough, there is no price on the slots as Teledesic found out recently when they were ordered to share some of their bandwidth with others, mainly LOR. Not saying there won't be competition but can't imagine there being more than 1/2 dozen companies in the world that will wind up with this market and LOR will be one of them, IMO. And yes I am in agreement that the entire nation of Japan does not consist of a single clone! Still recall my early education there however when after failing to convince them to make a move at a certain point in time (one guy was still objecting, everybody else was on board) I was told: "The nail that sticks above the surface is the one that get's pounded down". All generalizations are invalid to some degree but still think it's fair to say those guys take their concensus thing real seriously and that this leads to inaction a lot of the time. I suspect that this is less true with the generation now coming of age and that the old guard is in for a rude awakening as Japan grapples with the enormous changes taking place worldwide. Best, Mike Doyle