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Technology Stocks : QUANTUM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BroSnack who wrote (6761)	12/15/1997 3:26:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9124

On your item 2: The Asian suppliers have huge debts that they have used to rapidly expand production. The debt is largely valued in U.S. dolars or Japanese yen and the devaluation of the won means that these companies now must pay back more wan proportional to the devaluation. Pressure is now being put on the Asian economies to pay back their debts and become more responsible in how they give out new loans or roll-over existing ones. So as I see it, your example of lower cost of manufacture is only skin deep and will be more than off-set as the reality of the tight credit situation winds it's way through to individual companies. We may see some very agresive price cutting that will continue for the next 3-6 months. IMO this cost cutting should end as Asian companies start to pay back their debts and as US HDD mfgs. work out their overcapacity and inventory adjustments. I think it is still premature to call a bottom on Quantum, SEG and WDC. We may get more bad news as it appears that DD prices are continuing to slide down. However, buying now would probably be rewarded within six months with higher prices.

To: BroSnack who wrote (6761)	12/16/1997 6:19:00 AM
From: Alan Hume	Respond to of 9124

Hi Broshat, As I read, computer salaes in Asia are 18% up on last year. I doubt if the local currency values will have too much effect on the Asian market. Firstly a good part of the devaluation becomes diluted by local content, and secondly human nature being what it is may mean that the customer may have to pay a little more, but will do it anyhow. The biggest danger are asian box makers, who due to cost pressure may offer Fujitsu drives for example rather than one if US origin. But according to voices on this site, Asia is not a big market for QNTM, but I do not have any figures to support this. My understanding is that most Aian countries selling to the US invoice in USD. The buyers knowing of the devaluation will demand lower prices accordingly. It always works, because if you don't play ball your competitor may, and take over your share. It's a wicked world... BTW I was in Detroit last week REgards Alan