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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (54327)	10/7/2014 1:19:41 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	1 Recommendation Recommended By MCsweet Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78627

My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: MGDDY, JPM, MHNC, DRAGF, BKLN, LMCA, CF, BRKB, WDC, SPND, MKL, GLW. In: Out: Fixed income: ~16% Cash: ~17% New positions: AGCO Positions increased: PGN, WLP, TESB.BE Positions reduced: TPCA, INGR Positions eliminated: JNJ, YARIY Flip-flop: SFTBY With the market volatility, I did some housecleaning and some buying. Flip flopped SFTBY as BABA speculation. Came out ahead a bit. Sold JNJ on valuation. Sold YARIY - with CF rumours and prospective CEO deciding not to take the position, I think the company is not being managed well (at all? ;)). I would rather not hold position. Reduced TPCA - Atlantic City casino situation is pretty bad and it's not clear if TPCA businesses elsewhere outweigh the AC issues. Stock is holding up, but I wonder if market does not see the issues yet. Reduced INGR - similarly to TPCA, it seems that sweetener market is going through tough pricing. It's not clear if it will turn anytime soon and I think market is overoptimistic on INGR. Added PGN on price drop. Added WLP - still cheap. Added TESB.BE even though it will be going through rights offering. Bought a position in AGCO. I might be too early on agri cycle, but I like AGCO and DE. Bought AGCO this time to diversify from DE. AGCO is possibly cheaper, although they have their financing off balance sheet, which makes it a bit more opaque too. Also AGCO is more of international bet compared to DE. OTOH, it does not have construction segment, which might counter-cycle DE a bit. Anyway, both companies look OK here and will look even more attractive if they continue dropping.

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (54327)	11/12/2014 1:48:21 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78627

RYAM or risks of spinoff investing :) RYAM was spun off from RYN this summer. RYN is a timber REIT. RYAM is a specialty cellulose manufacturer. The CEO of RYN joined RYAM. RYAM is supposed to be the faster growing part. RYAM has dropped over 20% from the spinoff price. It is somewhat attractive on valuation basis although its results were not that great for Q3. Now RYN drops a bombshell: finance.yahoo.com They did internal review and had to restate 2013 results and they claim a lot kinda nasty things - like unsustainable timber harvesting to inflate results, putting inaccessible or unharvestable timber into assets, etc. They don't directly blame the past CEO who went into RYAM, but it's pretty clear where they are pointing the finger to. So now: RYN is damaged goods, since they will have to drop timber harvesting a lot to get to sustainable level. I doubt that the current price is the bottom. Probably no point to invest here. RYAM is not directly caught in restatement, but can anyone trust the CEO who inflated results in the past parent company? The valuation is somewhat attractive, but would you consider it at any price? Any thoughts on this? Buy/sell/hold on either piece? Or just move on?