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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: space cadet who wrote (8417)	12/15/1997 4:22:00 PM
From: Jon Tara	Respond to of 9285

Space, I agree. Today might have been a good day to INITIATE a CTXS short! I noticed as well that it reacted the wrong way to the late-day strength in the techs. I am watching AOL as well, though it's not a wounded puppy. (Yet! :) ) Technically, it has fallen pretty faithfully from this RSI level in the past. There are a couple of occasions when it's moved up for a couple of days from this level, and that is what I am thinking may happen this time as well. I was tempted to short this afternoon at 85, but think it may get a few more points up tomorrow and perhaps Wednesday. Even if this isn't "the" drop in AOL, I see it as a technically advantageous time to initiate a short - that is, fairly "safe". Using a MACD of the RSI, it flashed a BIG crossover sell signal on Friday. I think we will see some exiting of techs in advance of COMS. Will be watching COMS closely, as I'm sure will everyone. Will not short it, because shorting into earnings has almost become a formula for success, and not convinced that such a formula can stay in place very long.

To: space cadet who wrote (8417)	12/15/1997 11:36:00 PM
From: tcarnes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9285

dear space cadet, this is the point some co. don't play by the valuation rules we call them overvalued with others ctxs and yhoo they play by rules i can't understand. my plan is avoid these. I just don't go there. I try to stick to fundamentals and track over time with these co. there is no reason for the for the increases or decreases this can cost you big. the other problem is the stock price in relation to those changes for example if the stock is at 60 and another stock with predicable decreases like zitl say at 10 where is the profit on a 1 pt. drop with equal capital outlay. ctxs will take you to the poor house and for what go with what you know will work or at least has tracted predictablity. i would like to short a co. called tera i can't don't asked me why. ctxs should be at 20 and it defies all fundamentals i don't have the solution sorry i can't help. tj.