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Technology Stocks : Vitesse Semiconductor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bharath Rangarajan who wrote (1074)	12/15/1997 5:29:00 PM
From: Dan Spillane	Respond to of 4710

The last part of the VTSS chart looks like a "dome" or "breast"...there's a few stocks like this which have no news but have been flattened. I don't think Vitesse has significant Asian competition, nor sales demand exposure there...especially compared to other semi cos. I should add, there are a number of long distance telcos which will be scrambling to jump on the high-speed networking bandwagon...they pretty much have to, as a certain vendor is selling long distance phone service at .07/minute, using Internet high-speed networking to gain cost advantage over the big players. Guess what kind of devices that kind of networking demands?

To: Bharath Rangarajan who wrote (1074)	12/15/1997 11:32:00 PM
From: Dan Spillane	Respond to of 4710

Too much of an "easy short"? I did a little more research on this co.; here's some important items to consider: 1. As far as I can tell, Vitesse has no direct GaAs Asian competition (which could cause price pressure). In fact, VTSS is kind of unique in this respect...for GaAs designs tailored to very specific high-bandwidth applications. 2. There is some weak GaAs domestic competition (Triquint)...but even there, the market overlap between Vitesse and Triquint isn't large. Further, Triquint gets a lot of revenues from the "dreaded" wireless market, which Vitesse just doesn't have the same exposure to. 3. It appears that Vitesse is driven to a large degree by domestic demand; i.e., by the needs for the most advanced, high-speed networking designs. See the Gilder article for more info... 4. With the very recent announcement of "cheap high-bandwidth Internet-based long distance telecom" by at least one co., I forsee a rush to certain high-speed networking technologies which could benefit VTSS immensely. That is, AT&T et. al. will have to delve into this area too, quickly. No doubt about it. 5. There is at least one recent research note on a specialty semiconductor company which sells to Japan...this report shows a BOOST in orders. No doubt, the end-product using said specialty component is consumed in the US or Europe. Figure, cheap assembly in Japan due to weak Yen! ...SO...VTSS in a very specialized market, not bound to wireless market, strong domestic demand, new trend which could boost sales... ...stock down 40 percent plus from highs based on speculation?

To: Bharath Rangarajan who wrote (1074)	12/16/1997 12:18:00 AM
From: Dan Spillane	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4710

Gack! Silicon + copper does not GaAs make! Let me squash this rumor... I can see how "half-analysis" can lead to large price drops in stocks... Mike Winn said: Dan, I monitor the Triquint stock too. There are talks on the TQNT thread that copper chip technology from IBM is cause for concern for GaAs. What da ya think? Check the posts by a guy named Barak Maoz, he is very knowledgeable. My reply: I discussed why GaAs is superior with an electrical engineer the other day -- he worked with Vitesse, and by the way I also have some computer engineering background. The copper is NOT used for the actual semiconductor wafer, only for the interconnect ("wires"). Basically, copper has far less electrical resistance than the metal used now (often aluminum). A good thing for silicon, copper is. But gold is better! Now, a silicon chip DOES NOT have the same high frequency/low power characteristics as a GaAs design. So a silicon chip can't match a GaAs chip, even if that silicon chip has copper interconnect. In fact, your friend Barak quotes someone else's analysis who says exactly that, "but it (copper) will not give a Silicon MMIC the performance of GaAs". Further, I'm told (but haven't confirmed) that gold is often used in certain GaAs chips, which is better than copper anyway. ...the bottom line is silicon with copper doesn't at all endanger GaAs...that's a rumor!