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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justinfo who wrote (63996)	9/15/2014 10:43:51 PM
From: FCom777	Respond to of 218276

I'm sure it could just as easily turn higher from here ... making money on the short side of this market has no doubt been tricky. Interesting what you asked about sentiment. Based comment on random article I came across today that claimed sentiment was over 80% - how he measured it I have no idea - but the article had a historical plot of the indicator over the past few years which made it look credible. To the contrary, noticed this morning in the SPY option market that put buyers were paying disproportionate premiums compared to call buyers. This market action contradicts the article sentiment reading. Very disproportionate - which I interpreted as another sign that equities could be headed lower since market participants were bidding up put prices. Your measure of sentiment is probably as good as any ... On your chart, I think the bottom channel trend line (not drawn) is significant. That would place the lows of this move in the 1940-1960 range - which seems reasonable - and the uptrend would still be intact. Also,if you look at a bond market chart - it's right at its bottom channel trend line. Would not surprise me at all if bonds bounced off its bottom channel line to move higher and stocks continued lower to test and eventually bounce off its lower channel trend line - and then continue its uptrend. Orderly move? If bonds break through the lower channel line - signifying a more significant move ahead in terms of higher interest rates - then stocks could move lower in a hurry - which is kind of what I am hoping for. Either way I see room lower for equities. Heck we just rallied 100-120 S&P points - a correction of 40-70 points doesn't seem unreasonable. But who knows? Certainly not me .... Still dream about the 'I Dream of Jeanie' episode where she gets confused and provides her Master Tony Nelson tomorrows newspaper today ... like a genius he heads to the race track - unfortunately my Jeanie disappears when I wake up in the morning - and there's no darn newspaper!