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To: dvdw© who wrote (107723)9/28/2014 12:30:51 PM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217666
 
Sex and drugs boost UK economy
Official figures expected to show Britain's economic recovery even stronger than previously thought, with illegal drugs and prostitution, which represent 0.7pc of GDP, fuelling faster growth



£5.3bn of the UK's gross domestic product has been attributed to prostitution

Britain's recent recovery was stronger than previously thought, official figures are likely to show this week, with the inclusion of prostitution and illegal drugs expected to boost the economy by around £10bn a year.

Experts expect a “substantial” upgrade of UK growth over the past 18 months as part of a major accounting overhaul that will bring Britain in line with European standards.

Revisions by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) up to the end of 2012 have already shown the UK’s recession was shorter and shallower than feared.

Figures this month showed the economy shrank by 6pc in the wake of the financial crisis and not the previous estimate of 7.2pc.

“The ONS has already announced that these changes will cause the year-on-year growth in real GDP between 2008 and 2012 to be revised by an average of 0.5pc per year, and we expect that recent growth rates will also be revised substantially higher,” said Michael Saunders, chief UK economist at Citi. Unrevised data currently show that the economy grew by 1.7pc in 2013, and 0.8pc per quarter in the first six months of this year.

The new rules mean the figures will also show for the first time how much the illegal sex and drugs industry contributed to the economy in recent years. The ONS currently estimates that from 1997 to 2009 the impact of illegal drugs and prostitution on gross domestic product (GDP) ranged from £7bn to £11bn a year.

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In 2009 — the most recent year for which the ONS has published data — £5.3bn was attributable to prostitution while illegal drugs were worth £4.4bn. Together, they amount to around 0.7pc of the UK economy, or roughly the same amount as agriculture. Other illegal activities, such as the smuggling of alcohol and tobacco, are already included in UK growth and make up some £300m.

Some economists believe upward revisions will prompt more Bank of England policymakers to consider raising interest rates. “At the margin, stronger growth in the recent past could strengthen the hand of the Bank’s hawks who argue that low interest rates are stimulating rapid growth in the UK, meaning the economy could cope with slightly higher interest rates,” said Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Berenberg Bank.

Others said stronger growth will suggest there is less room for the economy to grow before prices start to rise. However, Paul Hollingsworth, an analyst at Capital Economics said policymakers were more likely to interpret stronger growth figures “as a signal that the economy’s supply side was less badly damaged by the recession than previously thought, and so will revise up their estimates of potential GDP by a similar amount”.

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Figures this week also showed Britain's debt pile was £127bn bigger than first thought. Public sector net debt now stands at £1.4trillion, while public borrowing also remains higher than forecast.