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Technology Stocks : Texas Instruments - Good buy now or should we wait? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: VulkanG who wrote (2510)	12/16/1997 1:40:00 AM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6180

<<<Who's going to win? My bet is on TXN and ADI (own some ADI but much less than TXN). The DSP market is getting tougher though. Any thoughts?>>> It's hard for me to say b/c I'm biased towards TI's ADSL strategy. I compare it to ADI's, MOT's, and LU's and I see them if not the clear winner then certainly leading the pack. ADI's teamed up with Aware for ADSL and b/c their solution isn't the ANSI/ETSI standard, they hadve to license from Amati, as does everyone else who wants to be Standard-compliant, which will affect pricing. Then of course Aware sold its DMT expertise to everyone who asked, and when they sold it to USR, many assumed they'd use ADI chips. Not so. They left the AWRE/ADI camp and teamed with TI. Very good for TI. Well, so it would appear. Just recently USR/COMS announced it was returning to ADI, like little BoPeep's sheep, wagging their tails behind them. Then Motorola, as you know, got behind on its ADSL CopperGold chip and lost just about all its customers. If there are any left, I don't know who. And Lucent? Let's see. They've been supporting CAP like Petain his Maginot line. And yet today there's press out saying they're teaming with Orckit on a PTT trial in the Netherlands. Mon dieu! Do we have LU supporting DMT? So where does that leave TI? They're in the process of buying Amati, the holder of the ANSI and ETSI standards for ADSL/DMT, and in trials with GTE and Microsoft for over 18 months. They also were awarded one of the first commercial contracts ever this past August --- from BCTEL in Canada. You probably know all this. I'm just restating to let you know TI's banking on owning the standard for ADSL as well as becoming a leader in VDSL. Not a bad strategy when you consider nearly every telco in the industrial world has announced they plan to deploy ADSL over the next couple years. Now, how these DSP suppliers compare with their other products is another subject altogether. I'll let you bring me up to speed there. I don't negate ADI in any way. I think it's a well-run company with a lot of leading technology. As for COMS' place in who wins the modem war, I think it's far too soon to call. There are some surprise entrants in the highspeed battle and COMS' early focus on 56K may have been their Eastern Front. I recently asked someone about the possibility of DSPs becoming commoditized and was assured that was a long ways out. I guess the speeds and power consumption issues differentiate the players and, according to one VP at TI, the advanced versions are so difficult to develop it won't be easy for new entrants to compete. My only other DSP play besides TXN is Spectrum Signal Processing (SSPIF), a small Canadian firm with a strong partnership with TI, as well as a long list of others, including HWP and NEC. If you want advice on when to buy, ask Larry Dudash. He's the TA pro. Regards, Pat