To: Tim McCormick who wrote (25470 ) 12/16/1997 12:33:00 AM From: Skeeter Bug Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 53903
thanks, tim. now, on to the shredder... ;-) >>481M in inventory carried at production cost, not carried at market value<< go ahead and write down at least $130 million of that - or $0.50 a share ;-) >>ASP on DRAM just under $5.00<< we'll be under $3 this q. that's $2 lost per chip. OUCH! >>3-4 months of test equipment problem still ahead<< no quick solutions. very bad for a "what have you done for me lately wall sweet. >>Recent contract pricing at $3.50, going under $3.00 soon. Would not enter large contract at $2.50 to $2.75 now, eventhough Korean spot is $2.20.<< funny, mu said they'd never sell dram for $6.50 or below. so, what is mu going to do? lose all the big contracts and massive market share? build more inventory and hold at the higher cost of production - right along with not depreciating lehi for several decades? >>64mb run rate currently 500,000 annual units, contract pricing on 64mb in $15 to $18 range.<< and dropping like a rock as everyone joins the party at the same time. deja vu all over again? ;-) >>Koreans liquidating inventory ASAP and are assumed to be running at low levels<< assumed? hmmmm. veddy convenient. last q mu said they didn't know anything about competitor inventories. now they "assume." veddy convenient. >>Bit growth to be in low single digits each sequential quarter.<< OUCH!!!! >>MUEI was 4% of MU DRAM sales.<< WANNA BET MUEI WAS BUYING ABOVE MARKET? i'll bet muei investors would be happy to know they are sacrificing for good ole mu ;-). >>Depreciation and Amortization to run around $615M for full year coming.<< KOWABUNGA, DUDE! $615 million? HASTA LA VISTRA (sp?) to any earnings. add up those losses BIG TIME! >>64mb crossover in second half.<< overcapacity strikes again! >>Refused to answer question about loss in the current qt. 3 times. Analysts conveyed tone of frustration over lack of forward visibility.<< why no visibility, mu? can't say anything negative? EVEN IF IT IS RRALITY! HO HO HO HO HO. this is horrible, folks. mu is toast. i expect eps revisions down to under $0.50 for the year. that puts mu at a 45 FORWARD pe. nah, i don't think so. nfli will make $0.50 this year and is $5.50 AND PAYS AN $0.08 DIVVY PER YEAR TO BOOT! give me a break :-)