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To: Tim McCormick who wrote (25470)12/15/1997 11:20:00 PM
From: Joss  Respond to of 53903
 
Thanks for the notes Tim. They were very informative.

Steve



To: Tim McCormick who wrote (25470)12/15/1997 11:37:00 PM
From: DavidG  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 53903
 
Tim,

Thanks for the notes. I guess I got my answer to the SG&A question although not that happy about it. MUEI is a millstone around MUs neck...They contributed a fraction of a penny to the bottom line and added $.13 of additional SG&A. Not much of an asset if you ask me.

DavidG



To: Tim McCormick who wrote (25470)12/16/1997 12:33:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 53903
 
thanks, tim. now, on to the shredder... ;-)

>>481M in inventory carried at production cost, not carried at market value<<

go ahead and write down at least $130 million of that - or $0.50 a share ;-)

>>ASP on DRAM just under $5.00<<

we'll be under $3 this q. that's $2 lost per chip. OUCH!

>>3-4 months of test equipment problem still ahead<<

no quick solutions. very bad for a "what have you done for me lately wall sweet.

>>Recent contract pricing at $3.50, going under $3.00 soon.
Would not enter large contract at $2.50 to $2.75 now, eventhough Korean spot is
$2.20.<<

funny, mu said they'd never sell dram for $6.50 or below. so, what is mu going to do? lose all the big contracts and massive market share? build more inventory and hold at the higher cost of production - right along with not depreciating lehi for several decades?

>>64mb run rate currently 500,000 annual units, contract pricing on 64mb in $15 to
$18 range.<<

and dropping like a rock as everyone joins the party at the same time. deja vu all over again? ;-)

>>Koreans liquidating inventory ASAP and are assumed to be running at low levels<<

assumed? hmmmm. veddy convenient. last q mu said they didn't know anything about competitor inventories. now they "assume." veddy convenient.

>>Bit growth to be in low single digits each sequential quarter.<<

OUCH!!!!

>>MUEI was 4% of MU DRAM sales.<<

WANNA BET MUEI WAS BUYING ABOVE MARKET? i'll bet muei investors would be happy to know they are sacrificing for good ole mu ;-).

>>Depreciation and Amortization to run around $615M for full year coming.<<

KOWABUNGA, DUDE! $615 million? HASTA LA VISTRA (sp?) to any earnings. add up those losses BIG TIME!

>>64mb crossover in second half.<<

overcapacity strikes again!

>>Refused to answer question about loss in the current qt. 3 times.
Analysts conveyed tone of frustration over lack of forward visibility.<<

why no visibility, mu? can't say anything negative? EVEN IF IT IS RRALITY!

HO HO HO HO HO.

this is horrible, folks. mu is toast. i expect eps revisions down to under $0.50 for the year. that puts mu at a 45 FORWARD pe. nah, i don't think so.

nfli will make $0.50 this year and is $5.50 AND PAYS AN $0.08 DIVVY PER YEAR TO BOOT! give me a break :-)



To: Tim McCormick who wrote (25470)12/16/1997 8:39:00 AM
From: Earlie  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53903
 
TM:
My personal thanks to you for taking the time to consolidate the telephone conference call into the concise notes provided to the forum. It is a valuable time and money saver for many of this post's participants.
Best, Earlie



To: Tim McCormick who wrote (25470)12/16/1997 8:46:00 AM
From: Mike V.  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53903
 
Tim,

I found your post both objective and accurate. Thanks for taking the time.