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Strategies & Market Trends : Dividend investing for retirement -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTBH who wrote (20880)	10/10/2014 1:46:05 PM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 34328

I have focused on those Midstream MLP's that are not commodity priced. These have fallen too. I can only guess that future growth/expansion will be limited if drillers stop drilling because of low oil/NG prices. An analyst on Bloomberg Radio said that there was speculation that Saudi Arabia was going to flood the world market w/ Oil to drive the world oil price down and put the marginal producers out of business (at least shut down the non profitable wells). You would then get a shake out of the marginal producers and probably see lower production in the shale regions. The analysts said they would need to get the oil price down to $60.00/bbl for some period of time to make this happen. I have focused on NG as this would only be indirectly impacted if the Saudi's tried this. However, all my MLP's are lower but of the 20 positions I own, only five are slightly negative based on my avg cost. My blended yield is at 7.12%. I bought some CMLP and UAN this AM. My strategy is to sell some of my gainers peeling off my high priced shares if/when a better MLP offer presents it'self. I am using current yield, coverage and the 3 year growth rate for determining my Buys. The 3 year growth rates are coming under scrutiny since if/when there is lower production, future growth may be cut. I think NG infrastructure Midstream Operators may have better future growth everything else equal. It's hard to put to an exact formula since future distributions and growth are estimates. I guess error on those with less leverage/debt and longer term supply contracts. EKS

To: LTBH who wrote (20880)	10/10/2014 2:11:04 PM
From: JimisJim	Respond to of 34328

That's a false comparison, i.e., homeowners vs. large oil companies... as for 3P reserves still in the ground, it is money in the bank... OK, so companies that have been reckless with credit will have a rough time while the price of oil is depressed, but many of the larger companies keep large war chests they use during busts to acquire more assets and/or companies... when I worked for NOV (actually, VRC, which became NOV) every time the price of oil slumped VRC bought another company and/or merged with a larger company and they did it on the strength of their cash reserves... OK, not every large oil company is that prudent, but find the ones that are and buy during the slump if you want outsized cap gains down the road... make no mistake, no oil price slump in modern times has lasted more than 18 mos.