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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hpeace who wrote (11410)	12/16/1997 1:21:00 AM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 97611

steve, Isn't it curious that Compaq has dropped so much when it has actually had NO bad news? The market is worried about Compaq's Asia exposure... Compaq says that it is only 6% exposed to Asia and the benefits of cheaper components outweigh the losses. The market is worried that Compaq cannot make money on the sub 1k PCs... Compaq has said repeatedly that it is making a good return on them. The market is worried that Compaqs aren't selling and they are stuffing the channel... Compaq says that inventories are on-target, adjusted for the season and for the decrease in dealers. The market is worried that Compaq is losing market share. Compaq has been steadily gaining market share...world-wide market share was 10% in 1995, 12% in 1996, 14% in latest IDC report (if I remember correctly). Packard Bell has been losing market share steadily. And remember, 60% of market share still belongs to "Other". This segment will continue to be steadily eaten away by Compaq, Dell, HP and IBM. The market is worried that Compaq will miss its number... As you have said about 50 times, they would look pretty stupid to miss it now, after much public boasting (can we say "class action suit"?). So why has Compaq's correction been more severe than Dell's? or even Gateway's? Is there any logic here? just institutions locking in year-end profits? or is Mr. Market just being more depressive than usual?

To: hpeace who wrote (11410)	12/16/1997 2:16:00 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

Hi steve; Just thought I'd remind you of a little note I posted on the Ask Michael Burke thread back on Dec 4, when CPQ was at about $65 per share: Of course I don't claim to know anything about TA, but thought I would post some charts of CPQ and what appears to me to be the future of the stock. That last chart has the look of a stock about to make a violent move in one direction or another. At the very least, I think CPQ will return to below $60 per share. Message 2883249 Afterwards you castigated me for my lack of technical analysis skills. I guess that every now and then even the incompetent can post a detailed prediction of the future of a stock price trajectory correctly by accident. :) I know, I'll get mine later... Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha The basic underlying problem for CPQ is still there: Institutional sales. Today's chart showed some really big guy dumping shares at $53.50. Institutions don't turn on a dime, and they ain't done yet. So I'm holding those puts over-night again, and probably till next year. But I'm beginning to get urges to go hunt for values in slaughtered tech stocks. CPQ hasn't been slaughtered yet. A slaughter would be a price in the teens post split. Doesn't seem that far off, at the current rate. Or maybe CPQ will rise tomorrow based on the awful earnings report from MUEI. :) -- Carl Wise saying for the day: In a bull market, everyone's a genius. P.S. Seems like we're making money on puts on the same stock, but I'm figured as a bear, while people think you're a bull. How is that?