To: Jeff Bond who wrote (613 ) 12/16/1997 1:14:00 PM From: Todd D. Wiener Respond to of 886
I spoke with John Baumann a few minutes ago. He said that Semtech hasn't changed its guidance from that given in the Q3 reporting. Semtech is pleased with the market's reception for their new products. The company continues to see positive trends from these new product offerings. Any adverse effects from the SE Asia debacle may not be felt for several months, if at all. Manufacturing costs may be slightly lower. I asked if Edge was seeing any slowdown in orders, considering Edge's revenues depend on the demand for test equipment. He said that the back-end equipment, especially ATE, is one of the strongest areas of chip-equip. It's driven by capacity expansion, increased unit volumes and more powerful ICs (those that are being tested). It should continue to be strong. It seems to me that SMTC will not be affected nearly as much as chip-equip companies, for obvious reasons. Furthermore, SMTC should be relatively insulated from pricing pressures faced by digital IC companies that supply the logic, microprocessor and memory markets. I am still confident in SMTC's Q4. Let's remember that this company has considerable momentum in its business, so it's less likely to be affected by a slight drop in PC demand. In fact, its sales are dependent upon the PC market, primarily. I don't expect that market to suffer from this Asian thing. What the world needs now is Microsoft and other software companies to offer new products with more demanding hardware requirements. That would remove the slack from the chip market and it might pull the chip-equip market further into a recovery. I don't think the split announcement had any direct bearing on the stock price. Look at the overall market and SMTC's peers. Guilt by association, plain & simple. Todd