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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (1827)	12/16/1997 7:39:00 PM
From: Mark Oliver	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9256

<Without having heard more than HTCH's side of the story, I would be extremely worried about Innovex in the face of TSA. Do your homework before you consider that one.> Z, have you really checked into this story? I've tried to learn everything I can about it and don't feel that Hutchinson has any clear victory. Seagate endorses Innovex and all indications seem to show that the products are very competitive in every way except price, which is clearly in Innovex's favor. To me, the greatest problem faced by Innovex is the trend to single platter drives. Until we start seeing a need for more multi platter drives, Innovex's sales will not return to the 100+% of last year. Even so, they feel 20% is doable and until now, they have been surprisingly reliable. I feel this number may even fall to 10% growth, but in an industry that has just imploded, that's not too bad. The issue of bringing more devices onto the suspension is the most interesting story ahead of Innovex. Seagate has announced some developments toward this in their portable drive program. If we see acceptance of their flex circuit for widespread use, we may see another 100+% year in the near future. I am not so impressed with Hutchinson due to their slow introduction of a profitable, selling solution. Now, it would seem they may have production capability coming just in time for an industry slowdown. The same was true 6 months ago. When nearly all drives were on allocation, Hutch was also unable to meet demand for suspensions. The blood that has flowed from the TSA project has wrecked what could have been a very nice year for HTCH shareholders. How long can it go on? At the same time, Innovex never missed a shipment despite an incredible ramp to a new MR product way ahead of schedule. So, I am biased, but always interested to know what the real story holds. What evidenvce do you see suggests Hutch will take significant market share from Innovex, besides the continued unfulfilled boasts from Hutchinson's PR dept. Z, you follow Quantum very closely, can you verify whether they are going to use TSA or INVX's HIF? Regards, Mark