Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : Ebola Outbreak 2014 - News, Updates and Related Investments -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: howestreetbull who wrote (437)	10/24/2014 4:58:34 PM
From: sense	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 608

LOL!! Thus far, there's no delta... the new model isn't showing anything at all different than the old ones... making it no more "incredibly accurate" than the existing models. But, it is predicting there will be future declines wholly based on "attempts to make up for the usual shortcomings of the r_0 number, which, according to the IDEA creators, often fails to accurately account for epidemic control efforts". In other words, it isn't modeling the disease based on biological assumptions, it is modeling the assumed effectiveness of the "control efforts"... while simply assuming that their guesses about the effectiveness of control efforts will be better than others guesses... Thus far... that's giving ZERO reason to think this modeling effort matters in being predictive... The latest news, for instance, touting the creation of more beds which enables keeping more Ebola patients isolated from the population ? You should be easily able to model the impact of reducing the population of vectors by isolating more of them.... but, that ASSUMES that creating more beds to enable isolating more vectors... means isolating more vectors... That effort, thus far, has failed in noting that the occupancy of those new beds being created now is only 50% and that the occupancy rates are DECLINING.... So, modeling assumptions that what you do WILL work... mean outputs that aren't any better than the garbage in... The problem, now, is the regional governments insistence on cremating the bodies of those infected who succumb... rather than burying them. That makes sense, because the burials that have been occurring haven't been effective in isolating the bodies from the environment... However, the local people don't want their bodies being cremated... they want to be buried... so they're avoiding those facilities that would isolate them, and their bodies if they die, in order to ensure their bodies won't be burned if they die... Did they plug that uncomfortable "benefit" of the control efforts into their modeling ?