Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 2MAR$ who wrote (108140)	10/27/2014 8:51:25 AM
From: 2MAR$	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 219497

Brazil Stock ETFs Tumble on Rousseff as Petrobras Sinks ( EWZ $1 bounce off 37.50 low) The iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF dropped 11 percent to $37.12 as of 7:44 a.m. in pre-market New York trading, while the real fell to a nine-year low as it led global declines. Ibovespa futures sank 8.1 percent. Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PETR4), the nation's state-owned oil producer, lost 16 percent in early New York trading The Ibovespa equity gauge had rallied 16 percent from this year's low in March amid bets that the incumbent would be ousted by Senator Aecio Neves. More from Bloomberg.com: Arctic Ice Melt Seen Doubling Risk of Harsh Winter in EU Rousseff, who has maintained record-low unemployment even as the economy recorded the slowest growth under any Brazilian president in more than two decades, had 52 percent of the vote with 99.99 percent of ballots counted by the electoral court in Brasilia. The Ibovespa (IBOV) lost 25 percent since Rousseff took office in January 2011, while shares of Petrobras tumbled 40 percent and the real weakened 33 percent against the dollar. "There's going to be enormous disappointment in the markets that we have not had an opposition victory," Geoffrey Dennis, the head of emerging-market strategy at UBS AG, said in a phone interview. The Ibovespa may drop as much as 7.6 percent today, he said. More from Bloomberg.com: Virginia Holds Back on Quarantine of Ebola-Exposed Travelers Volumes Surge The real fell 2.9 percent to 2.5487 per dollar, the weakest since April 2005 on a closing basis. Related Quotes RIO.PA13.93-10.71% ELET6.SA8.11-11.27% PETR4.SA14.35-11.96% L UC ETF BRAZ C EUR? Watchlist 13.93-1.67(10.71%) Paris7:31AM EST Ibovespa Set for Bear Market as Rousseff’s Win Sinks Real Bloomberg 15 mins ago More ELETROBRAS -PNB N1? Watchlist 8.11-1.03(11.27%) Sao Paolo8:49 AM EDT Petr? Watchlist 14.35-1.95(11.96%) Sao Paolo7:50AM EST The Lyxor ETF Brazil Ibovespa ETF (RIO) declined 13 percent in Paris, the biggest intraday slide since October 2008, with volume more than four times the three-month daily average. The NEXT Funds Ibovespa Linked ETF (1325) declined 6.8 percent at the close in Tokyo, the biggest loss since September 2011, on volume exceeding 12 times the average. More from Bloomberg.com: Hundreds Give Up U.S. Passports After New Tax Rules Start Throughout the campaign, Brazil's stock market and currency retreated when polls indicated Rousseff might win, including a 6.8 percent drop in the Ibovespa during the final week as polls showed her support rising. Neves, who had pledged to cut public spending and attract more private investment, said in his concession speech that he phoned Rousseff to congratulate her on the victory, calling on the president to unify the country. Rousseff defended her economic performance by saying she preserved jobs in the face of the global economic crisis. While the economy entered recession in the first half of this year, September's 4.9 percent unemployment rate was a record low for the month. Real average income has risen 10 percent during Rousseff's tenure and 33 percent in the past decade. Finance Minister Credit-default swaps insuring Brazil's debt against non-payment rose eight basis points today to 173 basis points, according to prices in New York compiled by Bloomberg. The contracts have risen from the year's low of 124 basis points on Sept. 3. Investors will turn their focus to Rousseff's choice for finance minister, said Frederico Sampaio, the chief investment officer of Franklin Templeton Investments Brazil, which manages about $900 million. Rousseff said last month that her new government would have a fresh team, including a replacement for Finance Minister Guido Mantega. The president's fiscal policies fueled Brazil's first sovereign rating cut in more than a decade, while the government's attempts to control inflation by intervening in state-run companies sapped profits at Petrobras and electric utility Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras SA. (ELET6) "What she has done has been quite negative for the market, so we see a systematic de-rating," said Pearlyn Wong, a Singapore-based investment analyst at Bank Julius Baer & Co., which oversees about $288 billion worldwide. "We do not recommend buying." Valuation Outlook Quantitas Gestao de Recursos, a Porto Alegre-based investment boutique that manages 15 billion reais ($6.1 billion), estimated last week there is a 50 percent chance Brazil's rating could be cut to junk in Rousseff's second term. Brazil's dollar bonds returned 8.7 percent this year, trailing the average 10.1 percent advance for investment-grade developing nations, JPMorgan Chase & Co. indexes show. The yield on securities due in January 2025 increased two basis points to 4.11 percent today. In Rousseff's first three years in office, the notes posted an annual gain of 5.04 percent, lagging behind the 5.6 percent return for similarly-rated sovereign peers. The Ibovespa is trading near a five-month low of about 10 times estimated earnings. Stocks won't be attractive until valuations fall to about 8 times, according to UBS and USAA Investment Management Co. "Her victory was not totally priced in yet," Bianca Taylor, a Boston-based senior sovereign analyst and strategist at Loomis Sayles & Co., which oversees $223.2 billion worldwide, including Brazilian sovereign and corporate bonds, said by phone. "We should see a slump in Brazil assets as a whole in the next few days." To contact the reporter on this story: Filipe Pacheco in Sao Paulo at fpacheco4@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Michael Patterson at mpatterson10@bloomberg.net Chan Tien Hin More from Bloomberg.com ECB Fails 25 Banks as Italy Fares Worst in Stress Test Apple Pay Faces Challenge as CVS, Rite Aid Reject System Just 500 Miles Apart, Japan Holds Drills With Russia, US