Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (3862)	12/16/1997 2:58:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Ian, I was interested in your assessing possible bottom targets, and spent the weekend developing a plan of entry based on my own financial situation. Weighing this upward move with very real possibility of lower prices eventually, I concluded the best tactic would be to buy at each dollar level from 28 to 14, with higher percentages towards the bottom. This may seem silly to develop a plan for buying significantly lower with prices on the rise, however I think that is the exact mistake holders made on the ride up. A pe of 25X next years earnings was historically high, therefore you sell. A pe of 6-15 times this years earnings is historically low, therefore you buy. To develop an individual buying plan, you have to determine a POTENTIAL bottom, and buy before then, because it probably won't happen. 14 is 6.7x this years e, 2x book, and 1.25x sales, all levels that are typical yearly lows. Of further note is the yearly bottoms are usually hit quickly and then pop up 10%. I've bought three times this past week, doubling my position. If AMAT hits 14, My position will have increased by 400% from here. I would still expect AMAT to hit a minimum of 100 within 3 years. Gene

To: Ian@SI who wrote (3862)	12/16/1997 7:05:00 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 10921

<The equipment stocks have been up 2 consecutive days on bad news. I believe this is rather bullish for the sector. > Yep...I agree. Arent the earnings estimates for '98 much better than they were @ the last bottom in '96?? Not that they arent subject to change, but for now the bottom should be higher than '96... probebly just hit it. On top of that the news from asia CANT get worse...next few weeks probebly will have decent news out of asia. Question now is are we back to "rosy scenario" or headed for a global depression and just using this lack of bad news and its bounce to exit? DAK PS...what the hell is going on in SVGI?