Let me clarify some things, Gary. You are misunderstanding what I've been saying and my intentions.
>>>The trouble with your logic is that you are (were) bad mouthing this stock when it was already down but then you go on to say that you aren't willing to short it until it goes up to near its all time high again (85+).<<<
I'm not "bad-mouthing" the stock, I am presenting the negative aspects of it. Is positive emphasis therefore regarded as "ass-kissing" the stock? But that's beside the point. I began pointing out the negatives several weeks ago -- even a week or two before I ended up selling my CSCO shares. I sold at 85.25 back then, because I really believe in what I've been saying. I had been holding for 27 months, so I must have been bullish until this Fall, right? Some may say, well you could have sold your 4000 shares at 90 and bagged another $20G. So what? I could also have turned around and used the same capital and bought even more CSCO shares back yesterday at under $72. It is never a wrong move to lock in capital gains.
Now, the reason why I am so particular in shorting at 85+, is because this is the loftier levels of CSCO's range -- I want to short a stock at the highest p/e possible. Also, the buying power begins to weaken at those levels...with current market conditions, the odds are well increased in my favor for a short-term trade. When CSCO trades down into the 70s, the buying power increases...so were there to be any possitive news and/or a sector rally, a short position taken in the 70s could quickly be overrun. People take different entry/exit points based on their own analysis...and mine tends to show me that 85+ is the best level for me to begin accumulating a short position. Who does or doesn't agree with me, changes nothing. Any short position I take is intended to be as brief as possible. Returns are all I am interested in...not the company, at the moment.
>>>You apparently aren't really sold that this stock doesn't have some solid ground. Let's face it; of the networkers this is THE stock to own. If you're in this sector you have to be in Cisco. If you disagree I'd be interested to know what networker you believe will be stronger over the next 1, 2, and 5 year window.<<<
I've said this before and I'll say it again, I have never contested CSCO's long-term prospects. The company will no doubt be successful for many years to come, considering we are now in the Information Age, and data networking is the circulatory system that keeps information flowing.
I agree that CSCO is the *safest* networker to own. It is the largest, best financed, and has presence in the most amount of market sub-sectors. It hold the #1 - #3 slot in every segment, I believe. For the long-term hold 1- 3 years out, this company has historically been a steady grower, just not in 1997. The whole NW sector is rocky, even by tech standards, but CSCO is the best choice for those with weak stomachs.
I disagree that you "have to be" in CSCO. There are at least two other players in the game (ASND + COMS) who are carry far more risk due to volatility, but in exchange, also offer the potential for far greater returns in a shorter amount of time than CSCO. Because of their volatile natures, ASND and COMS encounter many more peaks and valleys in their charts than CSCO does...but this offers the opportunity for short-term investing. There are more chances to buy the stock at low valuations (in relation to industry), and then ride it back to higher valuations.
Which stock you prefer depends on your particular style of investing. You appear to be a long-term investor. As for me, I always day trade, but because I manage other portfolios, I am forced to incorporate some various investing strategies as well. I am uncomfortable day trading more than 100G at a time...most people who have day traded understand this, the more positions you are maneuvering the more exceedingly difficult it becomes to trade well. CSCO was a great long term and required no maintenance in those two years, but I liquidated the position because I see better values all over the place. I wish I had the sense to cash out my CSCO shares this last Spring at 80 and then I could have bought almost double the amount back soon after for this last ride back to 80. When CSCO fell to 45, no one saw that coming either because "CSCO was the networker to own".
You asked which networker I think will be stronger over the next 1 - 5 years. That depends on which niche of networking you speak. Overall (based on total revenues), I believe CSCO will remain the leader with COMS nipping at its heels.
In RA, ISDN and FR, I believe ASND will remain the leader. Especially since it is not very likely to remain independent through 1998, it is far too valuable to too many large and deep-pocket entities looking to enter Internet/telco networking. Once ASND has a big sugar daddy providing all the R&D and aquisition capital it needs, it will hold these two markets in a vise. Of course, I probably won't be holding the stock when it happens...my intentions are to sell ASND at $50 next year based on valuation, for a 50% profit and move on or return when another down cycle occurs. I believe ASND also has a very good chance at becoming the leader in ATM...current statistics show ASND quickly advancing in market share in that arena.
>>>As for the hammering you've been taking in this forum. Much of it due to your volitile attitude I think.<<<
Hey, if I didn't enjoy the sport, I wouldn't be on this thread, would I? I don't recall complaining. Rather, I hear Duncan complaining a lot! ;o)
>>>If Cisco is a "dough-boy" then we should hope all the stocks we hold are equal to it. At $6B+ revenues and a $40B+ market cap your comments have little foundation.<<<
I call it a doughboy in regards to its relatively high valuation compared to the industry average. It deserves a premium, but it also has a multiple factored in that expects a rosy future absent of any short-term bumps along the way. But this is just my personal take on it, and not worth debating.
>>>Furthermore to buoy your position you point to the RAS market to which Cisco is relatively new. Therefore this position doesn't hold much water.<<<
The reason being is I am discussing CSCO in its competitive relation to ASND. Since ASND is concentrated in Internet/telco networking, this is all that is relevent in the matter. They also bump heads in routers now, but this comprises very little of ASND's total revenue (for the time being) and is little threat to CSCO's huge pie. My point about CSCO lagging behind in RA, is that it has yet to make any progress against ASND or COMS in this niche...rather, the smaller players are losing market share to CSCO. Your company has become very successful because it was one of the pioneers in networking's infancy. It rules the router/hub market and garners a great amount of revenue from this mainstay alone. But with router/hub growth momentum losing major ground to preference for switching, CSCO has to find its growth elsewhere. RA being one of the targeted markets. But this time, there are other pioneers that are encumbent in the sub-sector. How this plays out is yet to see, but ASND and COMS are very, very strong there. Same goes for a few of the other niches.
>>>Cisco pratically owns the remaining networking sectors...the fact that "the battle" is being waged on Ascend's turf points to who the aggressor is here.<<<
I've already just covered why CSCO is moving into RA/FR (new growth). You're wrong about CSCO owning the remaining sectors. ASND is #1 in RA, FR, and ISDN...it also has increased marketshare in ATM significantly, now holding 23%. CSCO rules routers/hubs, that's it...fortunately for CSCO, routers/hubs is still the largest pie out there (although it is getting stale).
Oh, and EVERY networker is an aggressor...that's practically a pre-requisite for this business. Except maybe for CS, they just bend over and let you kick them in the ass.
>>>That means that Ascend is being forced to protect their small piece of turf<<<
Small piece of turf? I suppose you are not aware of how fast the size of the FR/ATM/RA markets are growing. How about IP and voice over data? CSCO knows this, otherwise it would not bother pushing into the markets with such urgency evident by its "anything for a sale" tactics. It's bread&butter router/hubs market is showing the first signs of gangrene...and CSCO must find new market presence or choke on stench of a decadent market segment. CSCO knows ASND and COMS are sitting on a the biggest gold mine yet, and if CSCO doesn't claim a seat at the table, it's likely to end up talking to Cabletron about the "good ol' days", by 2005.
>>>So, my good friend I think your comments, although perhaps well intentioned (not!), come from being ill informed about networking and business in general.<<<
LOL! This coming from a member of a thread that seems to lack any networking technical knowledge or knowledge of current sector trends. Ha! I'm the only one here who has offered any technicals, statistics, reasoned argument with support, etc. It seems the common staple of a CSCO post is to whine and moan.
I have supplied lots of information to support my point of view. Your turn...show me what the CSCO thread is made of. ;o)
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