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Politics : President Barack Obama -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ChinuSFO who wrote (146656)	10/31/2014 12:17:29 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 149317

Early Voting Numbers Look Good for Democrats OCT. 31, 2014 Democratic efforts to turn out the young and nonwhite voters who sat out the 2010 midterm elections appear to be paying off in several Senate battleground states. More than 20 percent of the nearly three million votes already tabulated in Georgia, North Carolina, Colorado and Iowa have come from people who did not vote in the last midterm election, according to an analysis of early-voting data by The Upshot. These voters who did not participate in 2010 are far more diverse and Democratic than the voters from four years ago. On average across these states, 39 percent are registered Democrats and 30 percent are registered Republicans. By comparison, registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats in these states by an average of 1 percentage point in 2010. The turnout among black voters is particularly encouraging for Democrats, who need strong black turnout to compete in racially polarized states like Georgia and North Carolina. In those two states, black voters so far represent 30 percent of the voters who did not participate in 2010. By comparison, 24 percent of all those who voted in those states in 2010 were black. Photo Supporters of Senator Kay Hagan, Democrat of North Carolina, at a polling place in Asheville this week. Only 32 percent of early voters in the state were registered Republicans, and 47 percent were Democrats. Credit Mike Belleme for The New York Times But so far, there have not been enough new Democratic votes to erase the Republicans’ expected turnout advantage. It remains to be seen whether turnout among new voters will continue at these rates. The Upshot’s model, Leo, still gives the Republicans a 68 percent chance of taking the Senate. “They are wasting their time on margins that aren’t helpful to them when you consider the big picture,” said Kirsten Kukowski, press secretary for the Republican National Committee. “We will win Election Day.” But the figures are still good news for Democrats. The early-voting surge gives them a chance to pull off upsets in crucial states, particularly if they continue coaxing new voters to the polls in the final week of the campaign. “The numbers are surpassing our expectations and very encouraging across the board,” said Guy Cecil, executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “If these rates continue, we will be on track to win.” The Upshot analysis was conducted by matching absentee and early voter data to voter history and registration files from the Colorado and Georgia secretaries of state and the North Carolina Board of Elections. Iowa figures were provided by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Republican National Committee. Voter history and registration data are imperfect; slight errors can arise from duplicates, unmatched voters or imperfect state records. Midterm turnout is vital for Democrats because more of their voters from presidential elections stay home during the midterms. Democrats would probably win Colorado, North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia — along with control of the Senate — if the electorate were as young, diverse and Democratic as it was in 2012 or is likely to be in 2016. The figures are perhaps most promising for Democrats in Georgia, where the Democratic Senate candidate, Michelle Nunn, needs to get at least 50 percent of the vote on Nov. 4 to avoid a January runoff. She needs high turnout among black voters, who represented 28 percent of the electorate in 2010 but 30 percent of the electorate when President Obama was on the ballot in 2012. So far, 32 percent of Georgia’s early voters are black, including 36 percent of the voters who didn’t participate in 2010. Photo Members of an audience in Decatur, Ga., cheered Monday before the Democratic senatorial candidate Michelle Nunn took the stage during a rally encouraging early voting. Credit David Goldman/Associated Press Read more........the numbers.............. nytimes.com