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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Slim Pickens who wrote (3745)	12/16/1997 1:07:00 PM
From: Colby	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

Slim, Here is my 2 cents: Demand is starting to taper off, that we know. I think mngmt. has a pretty good feeling about marketing, in terms of when, who, and I hope, how. The trick is getting D stimulated at the same time the new capacity will be on line. How long is the lag time between the marketing and the D stimulation? How long will it take the plant to get on line? Can we adjust our production higher or lower to meet D? I think Jan. is the right time. With MCA approval optimistically obtained mid 1Q and FDA mid 2Q, we should certainly have the capacity. We should see higher D from the UK and Europe, but the FDA approval will have no effect on domestic D, which is where marketing comes in. I don't know much about marketing times, but a few months seems a reasonable time to allow for advertising to kick in. In response to Viagra, I believe that will also create demand for us. IMO, the average Joe doesn't know what kind of ED he has. He learns of the magic erection pill and seeks his local doctor. He tries it and gets nothing b/c he has medium to severe ED. The doctor offers him an alternative, MUSE. Again, maybe a long's biased view, but these are the reasons I am long. The other factor is the results of Viagra studies. It is hard to plan for the mysterious. We have to wait and see what the erection pill holds. As we continue to get foreign approval, our D should continue upward. The growth for Muse has enormous potential. Astra and Johannsen have already paid a lot of money to distribute this drug internationally. We get the benefit of the beginning D curve, much like the one we had in 97, which required very little marketing $$. Providing mngmt. does its job, which is really the only factor in my mind, this company should do extremely well in the coming years. Standing semi-erect, waiting paciently for the real arrousal, colby