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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (3864)	12/16/1997 12:50:00 PM
From: JEFF CHAPMAN	Respond to of 10921

Interesting story from Korea Times... Doesn't sound too bearish for semi-equips: Autos, Chips to Encounter Bullish Exports 12/16 19:07 The Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade said in a report yesterday strong increases in exports for semiconductors and automobiles are expected next year due to the weak won. KIET researchers said domestic consumption, on the other hand, will increase just 2.1 percent, down from last year's 6.9 percent and 4.8 percent projected for this year. The bailout conditions from the International Monetary Fund also means that government expenses will be reduced from an increase of 6.2 percent this year to negative growth of 1.2 percent next year. The researchers said facilities investments will fall further from a contraction of 6.0 percent this year to 19.9 percent next year, along with a 10.5 percent reduction in social overhead capital spending. However, at an average foreign exchange rate of 1,200 won to a dollar, despite interest rates of 20 percent, the export industry will perform well, even with the global economy growing at 2.7 percent, down from this year's 3 percent. By sector, general electronic products are expected to see an increase in production of 9.8 percent and 10.8 percent in exports, down slightly from the figures of this year, the KIET report said. The home electronics sector will be on a road to recovery as exports increase 1 percent, considerably higher than the negative growth of 14.7 percent this year and production falling by just 2.8 percent, down from 5 percent. Stability is the key word in the telecommunications field as an increase in production stabilizes at 6.1 percent following a robust year of 47.1 percent as exports hits 15.7 percent, down from this year's 18.3 percent. In semiconductors, production is projected to increase 22.3 percent, an improvement from 11.4 percent of this year, as exports jumped 19.8 percent compared to this year's 1.3 percent, the KIET researchers explained. Another area that is forecast to do better than expected is automobiles when production will fall 0.2 percent due to a reduction in domestic demand but exports will grow 11 percent, higher than this year's 8 percent. Shipbuilding will perform at about the same level as last year with production and exports rising 5.2 percent, down from this year's 5.7 percent. Impressive, nevertheless, considering global market conditions. ''One possible problem with the rosy forecast by KIET is that the exchange rate of 1,200 won may not hold for 1998 since it is already showing signs of stabilization and Korean products may only have a short-lived benefit from the currency depreciation,'' said one industry expert. In fact, decreasing investment and healthy exports could result in a considerable surplus in the trade account, meaning foreign exchange will be further stabilized, thus pushing the Korean won up.

To: Sam Citron who wrote (3864)	12/16/1997 1:19:00 PM
From: Scott Maxwell	Respond to of 10921

Yikes, Sam, are you asking a question or requesting a Ph.D. thesis? <g> I'm in the end-of-year crush now, so i can't pontificate beyond my knowledge at length as I usually might, but I do think there is a gap of one-two years before the big new growth areas for DRAM start having an impact -- digital TV and the related internet video. As far as add-on DRAM for existing PCs, I suspect the "cost" of such additions is already dominated by the user-inertia/fumbling cost, and rate of new sales in that market won't rise much no matter how low prices go. New designs will be oriented toward high-density parts because of the presumption that they will shortly be cheaper than equivalent low-density parts (especially when you factor in component-number and pincount savings). I was just pointing out that the quick slide in low-density prices is an aberration which can't be taken as a sign of weakening end-user demand.

To: Sam Citron who wrote (3864)	12/16/1997 2:07:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 10921

SC, >I seem to recall that buggy whip prices also eventually went to below variable cost..< Are you that old? <G> GM

To: Sam Citron who wrote (3864)	12/16/1997 2:19:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 10921

SC, > Is "video-over-the-net" the killer app that will drive demand for big cap DRAM? If so, then can we expect 64Mb DRAM and above to pause until deployment of cable modems reaches critical mass?...< Cable modems are the critical advance we need. 56k modems and their derivatives don't cut it. There is some modem that uses two phone lines to double speed. Not enough. We need a big jump in modem speed. I read in IBD today that internet radio stations are proliferating, but sound quality (with a 28kbps modem) is like mono-FM. I've tried it and it's not even that good. The industry is still dragging their feet on cable modem introduction. I think that is an area to watch, because it will drive many other technologies. GM

To: Sam Citron who wrote (3864)	12/16/1997 2:58:00 PM
From: David Rosenthal	Respond to of 10921

The current application that I see pushing the envelope is games! Current 3D games generally require 32 MB machines and with add-on libraries like OpenGL over Win95, can require 64 MB to run without significant disk swappings. Some new games have large installs (full installs > 200 MB) and the new generation of 3D games will require a 3D accelerator. This is almost a forced upgrade to run these new games. Faster CPU's (some with integrated 3D), AGP motherboards, new video cards and large, fast hard drives are required for good 3D performance. I think this is the current killer application (for the consumer market) that will drive the upgrade market in 1998. Now how large is this market? I am not sure. Current consumer electronics stores place their entertainment software near the front and this stuff takes up around 1/4 of their software shelf space. This suggests that it is a sizable market (but of course a consumer will buy many entertainment titles but only one office suite). Now what would it take to convince everyone that they need the hardware to run Quake II? Dave