To: Tom Trader who wrote (31316 ) 12/16/1997 1:11:00 PM From: Jerry Olson Respond to of 58727
LOL TT that was funny... Just got back from a breakfast holiday party, gee was that nice...<g>..we all got dressed nice and had coffee and such, very very nice... Ok TT here's what I see...I know we are going to rally thru mid Jan that's a given...my very bearish stance was really toward the tech sector with exposure to Asia... The domestic stocks, and those co's not exposed there will do just fine in this terrific environment for stocks...Low inflation, bordering on slowing next year, lower interest rates, might be going lower, and US co's doing great with excellent productivity and holding wages to current levels.. Truly remarkable...and a wonderfull senario for stocks... So we get a Santa Claus & Jan effect rally to 8500-9000 by mid Jan..At that time I will be shorting as many techs as I can based on my own info... Japan will come out with a great saving package for it.s people and companies...Won't be good enough though... Korea the same thing...the markets will hail this sensational IMF package and newly elected officials, and all the hoopla, and it won't help...WHY??? because what has taken years to unfold, will not take months to correct... But the markets will rally because "Something IS being done"!!!! what??? they have no idea, but it all sounds good... is it really??? This market is tradable, for scalps and flips, hits & runs...When the Co's start announcing earnings in Jan, and begin to give forward looking projections, I think we will see another bloodbath, after the euphoria runs it's course near term... TT there is SO much money in funds that has to be invested...It will come in with reckless abandon thru Jan...the techs will participate looking very cheap...we'll see what they say then... Remember corp earnings here, with exposue there will never meet or beat the street next few Q's...the bottom will come late Mar-Apr and then we will reevaluate where the techs will be... In the meantime I'm playing the OEX with calls, i sold my puts yesterday in EK & Klac...I bought SMOD again<g>...looking for JBIL to report good eps, which will help SMOD... I am looking for US co's with NO exposure in Asia, because all the money that's come out of techs will go somewhere...TOM you have to look at the charts on CPQ & INTC... INTC on Dorsey, formed a perfect triangle, in fact from the top and bottom they actually touched in the middle and then collapsed...so did CPQ..I think lower highs and lower lows are in the offing... I will sell into strength INTC it looks like a disaster.... Anyway that's my senario for the markets in general.. I feel comfortable short term, and even more comfortable long term... The current BULL/BEAR, YO=YO King in person<ggggg> :>}.....