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Strategies & Market Trends : Dividend investing for retirement -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Steve Felix who wrote (21105)11/3/2014 3:25:41 PM
From: E_K_S  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 34328
 
I did not realize that ARCP's COLE Capital division sold non-tradable REITs something like your sister owned. That market is not very liquid and now that ARCP is "tainted", those properties have less of a market value to the buyer. They do generate nice FCF.

Now there is speculation that another large REIT (like O) may come in and make an offer for ARCP, even an activist investor like Icahn or private equity.
Seemingly more hated than the two stocks I just mentioned is American Realty Capital Properties (NASDAQ:ARCP) which as I write, if off another 10% pre-market (bringing its total decline over the past week to nearly 40%). The commission and concealment of an accounting has spawned an SEC and FBI investigation into the company and lead to the cancellation of an agreement to sell its Cole Capital division. While ugly, I am not surprised by the FBI investigation as that would seem to be standard protocol anytime an accounting error is intentionally concealed. The reputational damage done to ARCP has caused Cole's business (Cole represents less than 5% of ARCP's enterprise value) to slow materially which likely triggered the material adverse change (MAC) clause in the merger agreement. Again, not surprising and not material to the overall valuation. As I wrote last week, there are several reasons I doubt that ARCP is a mass fraud. Similarly, the potential dividend accretion to an acquirer like Realty Income (NYSE:O), National Retail Properties (NYSE:NNN), or WP Carey (NYSE:WPC) is massive. I would not be surprised if each of these companies (in addition to private equity) were considering a bid for ARCP. Similarly, at today's price, the stock offers investors a 12+% dividend yield, more than double the yield on peer companies. Lastly, this situation is begging for the involvement of an activist like Carl Icahn, suggesting that the stock could rise sooner rather than later. A return to NAV (using a 6.25% cap rate) suggests shares could rise 70%.
EKS