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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: epicure who wrote (11711)	12/16/1997 2:18:00 PM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

Alexa, VERY good question... since I go by my VIX indicators as modified by Barron's based indicators (or is it the other way around... I forget), let see how this maps out... - we got a 5% buy signal on the 12th for the 13th... say 7,800. That gives us 390 plus 7,800 or 8,200... I think I said 8,250 or so was next resistance. - a 5% sell from there (and we are slowly working our way to it) would back us down from, say 8,300 to make the math easier) or 7,900. Now that is only if each move is around 5%. Actually, if you move 5% up and 5% down you actually end up LOWER than you started. After we clear away the smoke, the fastest I can get to the peak from here, based on prior data (WHICH ONLY GOES BACK TO AUGUST) is 6 trading days which puts us, including today, around Christmas for the peak... remember that old holiday rally! So I think the low will come after Christmas. It is really dependent on how fast the VIX falls... and it has not been good at that recently. There is no reason why we can't get an intermediate sell signal, though and then another buy signal. Those can occur just a couple of days between each other. We could actually get a sell signal as of today and pull back before moving back up again... but I think it may be more like a pause. EXPIRY week, ANYTHING CAN AND DOES HAPPEN!!! (You didn't hear it here first!!!) Bill .