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Technology Stocks : Atmel - the trend is about to change -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Nguyen who wrote (7609)	12/16/1997 2:23:00 PM
From: Frank Chen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13565

Tom, I don't do shorts. I'm waiting for an entry point on this stock. This is a good growth stock, but even if you love a stock, you got to get in at a price that will maximize your return. I'm just trying to help everyone on the thread to find a reasonable price for this cyclical stock. I hate to see individual investors lose because misleading projections, wrong strategies, insiders who take advantage of the information, and above all, an ATML IR department that's elusive in answering straight questions. I deem the stock fundamentally sound if the estimates can be met, and I would suggest everyone to jump into ATML if that's the case. But in the present situation, especially when you consider the insiders sold in 22-23 range the end of last month, and the Nov. btb is down a bit, the Dec. trend is unclear according to IR, I think you'll agree with me that longs are in for 3 more weeks of punishment and jerky ride. By the way, if I'm short, I'll cover now, rather than try to chase those extra points. ATML is neither a good short target now, there're other stocks with higher PE ratio and in deep trouble. Also, I don't think my posts here are so powerful to move the markets. There're many people on this thread showing confidence in the stock. I'm posting the negative side of the story so people can keep a more balanced mind when they invest in ATML. I think that's helping people. Look, I'm not trying to be hostile. All I'm saying it's that if you're long, you should protect yourself with puts; if you intend to long, wait 3-4wks until Jan.15, when the earning is out and the picture is clearer. Along the way of waiting, ATMLers might see 10-15. I stated the reasoning already, which is supported by the avarage Q earning at 0.30 in the last 2q and the coming q, and the usual bottom PE of 8 for semi stocks during compression. Technically, ATML broke the low that's established two years ago, and the trendline is not good. Personally, I'll go long if the higher end of my projection is touched. ATML is a growth stock in a very cyclical business, for these kind of stocks, the catch of bottom is very critical, at least for me. So, if you're long and paid a higher price, consider puts. If you're not in yet, think about the risk and you might agree with me. Good luck for your investing! Frank

To: Tom Nguyen who wrote (7609)	12/16/1997 2:24:00 PM
From: Frank Chen	Respond to of 13565

Korea Tries To Maintain Chip Market (12/15/97; 10:51 a.m. EST) By Andrew MacLellan, Electronic Buyers' News Unfazed by an imploding economy, South Korea's industrial conglomerates appear determined to protect their semiconductor operations from painful spending cuts, a sign that the country's chip makers won't abandon their global market position without a fight. While the parent companies of all three of South Korea's largest electronics makers have announced deep reductions in their overall 1998 capital investment plans, none are yet willing to scale back spending for their semiconductor divisions, traditionally a strong source of revenue. The LG Group, for example, said it will maintain its capital investment levels for its U.S. chip subsidiary, even as it slashes its total 1998 investments by more than 50 percent. And the Samsung Group and the Hyundai Group, both of which said they plan to cut their spending by 30 percent, have said they also will leave their chip budgets intact. But even that may not be enough to keep the wolf from the door, according to analysts. Given the combination of rising costs for manufacturing equipment and the prolonged slide in the price of DRAM -- South Korea's leading semiconductor export -- the country's chip manufacturers will likely find it hard to keep pace with their competitors. "These companies have violated the financial speed limit," said Dan Hutcheson, president of VLSI Research, in San Jose, Calif. "And now the market is handing out speeding tickets." Despite the $57 billion bailout package recently authorized by the International Monetary Fund, South Korea is still plumbing the depths of a financial crisis that has devastated the national currency and triggered a string of failures at merchant banks, steel manufacturers, and automakers. Amid the growing turmoil, South Korea's industrial conglomerates, or chaebol, are scrambling to rein in their spiraling debt, much of which must be paid back to overseas investors in the form of increasingly expensive foreign currencies. That the chaebol's chip operations are being insulated from the spending cuts is not surprising, Hutcheson said. In a market already as price-sensitive as the DRAM sector, a missed opportunity would hurt chip subsidiaries and other industry sectors that have been buoyed in the past by solid semiconductor margins. "For quite a while, these companies have made all their money in DRAM, which for the most part has lifted their steel and automotive and ship-building operations," Hutcheson said. "Their success was dominated by the money they made in DRAM."